Paul Eagle is narrowly the front-runner in the race for Wellington’s Mayoralty but Tory Whanau is close behind in a new poll run by TVNZ.
The poll is the first scientific one run in the 2022 Wellington mayoral race. It asked 500 Wellingtonians to rank their preferences. Forty-seven percent didn’t answer or didn’t know.
In the second preference, Eagle was on 51% and Whanau was on 49%.
It has former deputy Mayor and Rongotai MP Paul Eagle, who is running as an independent but supported by Labour, on 28% of people’s first votes.
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Former Green Party chief of staff Tory Whanau is on 26%, incumbent Mayor Andy Foster is on 20%, and the pro-business Ray Chung is on 13%.
However, Wellington’s single transferable voting system means people’s second, down to final, choices often play a crucial role in the final decision of who wins the mayoralty.
Instead of casting one vote, as in First Past the Post (FPP), STV voters rank their candidates.
The lowest-polling candidates are eliminated and their votes transferred to the candidate they rank the next highest.
During the 2019 Wellington election, then-incumbent Justin Lester was ahead on all stages of the vote, until the final one, which Foster ended up narrowly winning.
Foster on Sunday dismissed the results, arguing the poll was done more than a week ago, had a high margin of error, and had many undecided voters.
“It is all to play for,” he said.
Georgina Stylianou, who works on Eagle’s campaign, said it remained a three-horse race.
”When you consider margin of error and that 47% said they don’t know, refused, or don’t plan to vote, it’s clear that any of the three leading candidates can win.
“Andy and Ray announced early in the campaign that they’re on a ticket. The overwhelming majority of Ray’s votes will flow to Andy.
“Andy was written off by many last time and ended up winning by 62 votes.”
Whanau said the poll showed she could win though the only one that mattered was on election day.
“The result shows that Wellington wants a better connected, more resilient and inclusive city where everyone can thrive,” she said.
“Decades of neglect have left our capital city struggling. Successive local councils have made decisions that prioritised developers and landlords over our communities and people.
“Today’s poll shows we are closer than ever to changing this.”