Canada failed to secure qualification to the 2022 World Cup after suffering its first loss of the cycle on Thursday night, falling 1-0 to Costa Rica.
Still, Les Rouges lead the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying table, and with just two games remaining in the cycle, qualification still feels inevitable.
But the squad won’t tell you that.
“We’ve gotta stay humble, we’re not there yet, we’re not there yet,” repeated head coach John Herdman after beating El Salvador in early February. “We’re not at our target either, you know what this team has set for itself, we’ve still got a few more steps for ourselves to take it to where we want to get to.”
MORE: Recap of Canada’s World Cup qualifying loss to Costa Rica
Still, the first goal on the list is qualification, and that’s right around the corner. Here’s what Canada needs to do to secure a spot in the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings
Coming into the March qualifiers, Canada sits atop in the Octagonal table, four points ahead of anyone else, and eight points clear of the intercontinental spot.
The nation has already ensured itself of at least a top-four finish, while clinching a World Cup spot outright is just around the corner.
| Place | Country | Games | Points | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canada-W | 12 | 25 | +13 |
| 2 | United States | 12 | 22 | +9 |
| 3 | Mexico | 12 | 22 | +6 |
| 4* | Costa Rica | 12 | 19 | +2 |
| 5 | Panama | 12 | 18 | +1 |
| 6 | El Salvador-Z | 12 | 10 | -7 |
| 7 | Jamaica-Z | 12 | 8 | -7 |
| 8 | Honduras-Z | 12 | 4 | -17 |
* = qualifies for intercontinental playoff
W = clinched top 4 spot, X = clinched qualification, Y = eliminated from top 2, but can advance to fourth round, Z = eliminated from contention
Canada magic number for World Cup qualification
A “magic number” is the combination of points gained by the involved party and points lost by those in contention that would mathematically secure a World Cup berth for the United States.
MORE: Alphonso Davies returns to Bayern training, could return for Canada in March qualifiers
While normally there are two “magic numbers” to keep in mind — the first to secure an automatic World Cup spot, and the second to secure at least a spot in the intercontinental qualification match. However, Canada has already ensured itself of at least a top-four finish, so that is already taken care of. The only goal left is to ensure a spot in the World Cup outright.
Canada World Cup qualification magic number: 1
To calculate a “magic number,” you must assume that the team in the first spot outside qualification wins out.
If Costa Rica defeats El Salvador and the United States, it would leave Los Ticos with 25 points. To eclipse that and ensure a spot in the World Cup, Canada, currently at that mark, needs just one more point to officially claim a spot.
Can Canada clinch a World Cup spot against Jamaica?
YES, as the CONCACAF Octagonal leaders, Canada has a few paths to qualification on the second matchday of the March international window, and they’re not too hard to draw up. To ensure the assumed outcome comes to pass, the goal is clear: just a draw at home is enough to lock down a spot in the 2022 World Cup.
“This is what Canada deserves,” said goalkeeper Milan Borjan after defeating the United States, with a Canadian flag draped over his back in his post-match press conference.
MORE: Which teams are in the 2022 World Cup draw?
While a draw would be enough, Canada can backdoor its way in after a loss if things go right elsewhere. Here’s what Canada needs to secure a spot at the World Cup:
- Canada win or draw against Jamaica, or
- Costa Rica loss or draw against El Salvador
Panama, with two games left and sitting on 18 points, cannot catch Canada’s total of 25 points even with wins in the final two matches, meaning they are not a factor for Les Rouges when calculating their necessary steps.
Discussion about this post