A reported miscalculation could potentially break the Albanese government’s safeguard mechanism.
Australia’s reformed safeguard mechanism (SGM) is a plan to help wean the nation’s 215 biggest emitters off carbon with staged annual reductions until 2030, but new analysis claims the government has drastically underestimated current and planned coal and gas projects.
The mechanism relies on an adjustable baseline for emissions and the option of carbon credits should companies overindulge on their outputs. It also welcomes new fossil fuel players (formally called “facilities”) to join in the fun.
New modelling from Climate Analytics suggests that the government has drastically underestimated the emissions intensity of existing, committed and new coal and liquid natural gas (LNG) mines. For coal, the government projects emissions will dip by 10% by the end of the decade, and the report calculates a 23% to 116% increase. For LNG, the report says the government’s 20% rise by 2030 is closer to 36%.
Read more about the likelihood the safeguard mechanism won’t be effective.
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