BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 7. On March 5, another
unnecessary provocation of Armenian forces took place. Azerbaijan’s
military received information about an arms smuggling mission from
the territory of Armenia to the Karabakh via the Khalafali dirt
road, bypassing the main Lachin-Khankendi road.
The latest occurrence in a series of events reinforces the point
that Yerevan is pursuing destructive policies in the region. This
is not news, as Yerevan’s proclivity to escalate in a situation
where it has limited opportunities to achieve a favorable outcome
was noticeable for a long time.
From an intelligence perspective, Armenia’s continuous attempts
to transfer personnel, weapons, and ammunition to Azerbaijan,
constitute neither tactical nor strategic surprise. The government
of Azerbaijan said many times that visual control over the
territory is established, as evidenced by the video proof provided
after the latest provocation.
Some analysts look at the event through the lens of an isolated
incident, which is an incorrect approach because it distorts our
view and makes us unable to make generalizations regarding the
Armenian policy toward Azerbaijan.
Provocation based foreign policy: a major threat for the
region
It is imperative to realize that Armenia continues its
provocation on the territory of the sovereign state, which
instantly makes such steps illegal from the perspective of
international law. This argument alone would be sufficient to stop
the analysis in an ideal world, however, in the modern age
international law is rather flexible, and provides no real
protection. It is for this exact reason that Yerevan is ready to
continue its provocations, as this offers high potential rewards
with little potential risks involved.
There is, however, a lack of understanding of how states react
to such acts is noticeable in the case of Yerevan. Ruling elites in
Yerevan demonstrate bounded rationality when it comes to the
possible responses of Azerbaijan. From the perspective of an
observer, it is obvious that Baku will not remain indifferent to a
threat to its domestic and foreign policy.
There is another issue that is crucially important. To this day,
Armenia has a limited understanding of the possible implications of
illegal weapons and personnel smuggling on the establishment of
peace in the region. It is obvious that the steps of the Armenian
government do very little to contribute to peace due to their
militaristic nature. A politically wise move, in this case, would
be to discuss the terms and conditions of future peace. However,
the fact that Armenia has not done so in more than two years gives
us grounds to suggest that an outbreak of violence justifies the
maximalist goals of Armenia.
It is looking increasingly likely that the lack of desire in
Armenia to forge a peace deal, and the continuation of the weapon
smuggling, are all a part of a larger plan. By transferring weapons
to Azerbaijan, Armenia carries out preparations for one, or several
provocations. Several possibilities can be considered at this
moment.
Armenia gathers military supplies on the internationally
recognized territory of Azerbaijan to carry out provocations
against Azerbaijan. These military provocations would be carried
out against the citizens, as well as servicemen of Azerbaijan. This
risk would be unacceptable for Baku, and it would not be surprising
to have decisive action taken against a possible provocation.
Another possibility, which would be too dangerous to disregard,
is the potential false flag attack against local ethnic-Armenian
residents of Karabakh. This step could be aimed at tarnishing the
reputation of Azerbaijan, threatening the economic link between
Azerbaijan and other states, as well as uniting Armenia and the
global diaspora around the idea of “modern-day genocide”.
Both possibilities are extremely dangerous for the region in
general, and Armenia in particular. It is very important to ensure
that the Armenian government makes a rational decision and does not
escalate the situation in pursuit of dubious goals, which are
unlikely to be achieved.
Self-sabotaging foreign policy narrative
It is very interesting that the efforts of Armenia to smuggle
illegal weapons to Azerbaijan did more to destroy the Armenian
propaganda machine than any other method. Armenia claims that the
alleged “blockade” of the route under the temporary control of
Russian peacekeeping force is being blocked for months by dozens of
protesters, which prevents vital resources from being transported
in and ensures the survival of the ethnic-Armenian population of
Azerbaijan’s Karabakh.
Now, here are several big questions that come up. How can the
“blockade” be carried out, when there is a road being used? And
another question is why was this route used for illegal weapon
smuggling when the population of Karabakh is being starved due to
the “blockade”?
These two questions challenge the narrative that the Armenian
propaganda machine carefully crafted over the previous several
months in a bid to distort the global perception of Azerbaijan.
Logic suggests that if there is a possibility to smuggle
weapons, then the same opportunities are available to transfer
important goods. However, it looks more likely that Armenia is more
interested in maintaining its victimhood image and creating a false
narrative to harm Azerbaijan.
Armenia lacks judgement
Armenia operates on the premise that provocation is a feasible
strategy to improve the potential outcome of Yerevan vis-à-vis
Azerbaijan, which would allow Armenia to improve its bargaining
position.
While this may sound logical on paper, this will not lead to any
real results due to a combination of factors. First, this approach
is a very risky step to take, as the provocations would be dealt
with by Azerbaijan by any means that political and military
leadership see fit.
Second, Armenian provocation-driven foreign policy creates
grounds for launching escalatory responses in the region, as it
threatens the vital interests of Azerbaijan. Setting in motion
tit-for-tat or spiraling escalatory mechanisms poses significant
dangers for Armenia, as the country still has not recovered from
the devastating defeat suffered during the second Karabakh war.
It is baffling to see Yerevan try to escalate relations with
Baku, considering that Armenia possesses limited tools at its
disposal to threaten the existing balance of power. Armenian
efforts to escalate are looking like a moot point that will only
lead to more misery for Armenia and its international perception.
After all, Armenia is trying to carry out illegal operations on the
territory of Azerbaijan, and no country can do anything to prevent
Azerbaijan from protecting its legitimate interests within its
borders.
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