With seven teams locked in a battle for Premier League survival, here is a look at how each club can avoid the drop.
All three promoted clubs of Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton are involved in the scrap alongside established names like Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace, making the prospect of a shock relegation pretty likely.
Add in the financial benefits of top-flight survival then this run-in promises to be epic especially if throw in the possibility of points deduction appeals not being finalised until post-season, which could deliver some unexpected blows once the dust looks settled.
Now, here is a look at the individual run-ins of all seven teams battling to stay up.
Sheffield United (14 points)
Team | Venue |
Fulham | H |
Liverpool | A |
Chelsea | H |
Brentford | A |
Burnley | H |
Manchester United | A |
Newcastle | A |
Nottingham Forest | H |
Everton | A |
Tottenham | H |
Currently eight points adrift of safety, Sheffield Utd need a miracle to stay up but with home clashes against an in-form Fulham and Chelsea sandwiched between a trip to Liverpool, I do feel like they need two wins from those games just to improve their belief at a great escape.
I also can’t see them ideally beating Tottenham at home on the final day so their two home games against Burnley and Forest are absolutely must-win, especially if focus specifically on their home fixtures alone.
As for their remaining away matches, I feel like they won’t get anything at Liverpool, Man Utd or Newcastle, meaning that wins at Brentford and Everton are absolutely vital especially given their recent improvement in away performances.
Their defence however is their Achilles heel this season and I can see them getting realistically four points at home, whilst their remaining away games likely will yield one point – ideally at Brentford given their defensive injuries as their other away trips look extremely hard to get points from.
Prediction: 5 points
Burnley (17 points)
Team | Venue |
Chelsea | A |
Wolves | H |
Everton | A |
Brighton | H |
Sheffield United | A |
Manchester United | A |
Newcastle | H |
Tottenham | A |
Nottingham Forest | H |
Sat five points from safety, Burnley do have some hope if can start to put a run together properly but their remaining away games do look incredibly tough – as I don’t see them getting anything at Chelsea, Man Utd nor Tottenham.
Their visits to Everton and Sheffield Utd therefore are absolutely pivotal but I can see them drawing at Everton if play like they’ve done lately, whilst a win at Sheffield Utd does look achievable if not a draw which feels more likely despite needing victory more.
Home advantage also will have to count more than ever now but I don’t see them beating Brighton or Newcastle, meaning that they really need to make their strong head-to-head home form against Wolves count despite their struggles at Turf Moor this season.
I however do feel that the final-day clash against Forest could be meaningless despite a strong home record over Forest, but a win might be a ideal result for momentum to take into next season if already down.
Looking at that run-in overall, I do feel like Burnley can get 10 points in total but that Forest game might just come too late.
Prediction: 10 points
Nottingham Forest (21 points)
Team | Venue |
Crystal Palace | H |
Fulham | H |
Tottenham | A |
Wolves | H |
Everton | A |
Manchester City | H |
Sheffield United | A |
Chelsea | H |
Burnley | A |
Although they’re appealing their four-point deduction, Forest won’t be totally out of this relegation battle potentially even until after the final day of this season if can’t achieve a five-point gap to the 18th-placed club once all fixtures are completed.
Forest though do have a fairly favourable run-in when it comes to away games because they should get maximum points at Sheffield Utd and Burnley, whilst a draw at Everton would be a welcome point but I can’t see them beating Tottenham.
At home, Forest ideally need to claim at least four points from their next three home games because I don’t see them beating Man City, whilst the result against Chelsea will depend upon which side turns up given Chelsea’s unpredictability this season but a draw might be their best hope.
11 points therefore has to be the aim for Forest before they even discover if their appeal has been successful.
Prediction: 11 points
Luton (21 points)
Team | Venue |
Tottenham | A |
Arsenal | A |
Bournemouth | H |
Manchester City | A |
Brentford | H |
Wolves | A |
Everton | H |
West Ham | A |
Fulham | H |
Although they might need some luck to stay up via points deductions for their rivals, Luton on first glance don’t stand much chance of getting anything on the road at Tottenham, Arsenal or Man City, which means that four points at minimum from trips to Wolves and West Ham are vital.
Their remaining home games however do look kind because if Bournemouth and Fulham hit the beach psychologically at the point of their trip to Luton, Rob Edwards’ Hatters could get six points from those games which makes their clashes against Brentford and Everton season-defining.
Brentford though do have Bryan Mbeumo back for the run-in so I can see that game ending in a draw if the Bees’ defence is still leaky, whilst Everton are winless in their last five away matches but tricky to beat defensively so another draw might be the safest guess.
12 points therefore is achievable at minimum if luck and form of various rivals swing in Luton’s favour but if they can nick some points in their next three away matches, it would be a massive help for their survival chances.
Prediction: 12 points
Everton (25 points)
Team | Venue |
Bournemouth | A |
Newcastle | A |
Burnley | H |
Chelsea | A |
Nottingham Forest | H |
Liverpool | H |
Brentford | H |
Luton | A |
Sheffield United | H |
Arsenal | A |
With potentially another penalty then subsequent appeal incoming, Everton will need to turn on their goalscoring boots quickly but they have previously struggled at Bournemouth, Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal in four of their last five away matches left this season.
A victory away at Luton therefore is imperative because if they lose there then they must rely on their home form to stay up, not withstanding a possible successful appeal if handed another points deduction.
At home, they should realistically look to beat Burnley and Sheffield Utd but they must get ideally at least two points from their home clashes against Forest and Brentford, especially as the game against Liverpool looks a write-off unless the Reds suddenly implode.
11 points therefore does like Everton’s best bet but if they slip up against Forest and Brentford, they could be in deep trouble.
Prediction: 11 points
Brentford (26 points)
Team | Venue |
Manchester United | H |
Brighton | H |
Aston Villa | A |
Sheffield United | H |
Luton | A |
Everton | A |
Fulham | H |
Bournemouth | A |
Newcastle | H |
Relegation might look a real possibility but with Mbeumo back, I do feel like Brentford should have enough quality to stay up.
Their home games in particular do look favourable because although a draw look like their best bet against Man Utd, they could have enough to hold Brighton and Newcastle who have both been fairly inconsistent this season domestically whilst Sheffield Utd and Fulham are certainly winnable.
On the road, I don’t see Thomas Frank’s Bees beating Aston Villa but if they can win at Luton and Everton plus get a draw at Bournemouth, they might have enough to see them over the line.
15 points therefore might seem a fair aim but 12-13 points feels more realistic and should be enough to survive despite their injury woes.
Prediction: 13 points
Crystal Palace (29 points)
Team | Venue |
Nottingham Forest | A |
Bournemouth | A |
Manchester City | H |
Liverpool | A |
West Ham | H |
Newcastle | H |
Fulham | A |
Manchester United | H |
Wolves | A |
Aston Villa | H |
Sat eight points clear of the drop, Palace surely are destined for safety but this is the Premier League where anything can happen even if think survival is a simple formality with a decent gap to the bottom three at this point of the season.
Palace though do have a decent run of home games because aside from Man City, they could realistically get a 3-6 points against two of West Ham, Newcastle and Man Utd, whilst their home record against Villa is strong so a return of seven points at home would be a fair target.
On the road, it is vital that Palace ideally get at least one win at Forest or Bournemouth because if lose those two games and results elsewhere go against them, Palace could find them dragged right into the mix especially as getting anything at Liverpool feels mission impossible.
Trips to Fulham and Wolves though are tricky to call because those two teams could be either mentally on holiday or scrapping for European qualification come May, but if they can get a win at either team then it would go a long way towards survival if also beat Forest or Bournemouth.
Six points on their travels therefore feels like Palace’s minimum aim but they really should secure safety anyway.
Prediction: 13 points
No Change
If add the predicted points totals to the current points tally of all seven teams, there would be no change with Sheffield Utd, Burnley and Forest set for the drop unless Forest win their appeal.
Position | Team | Points |
14 | Crystal Palace | 42 |
15 | Brentford | 39 |
16 | Everton | 36 |
17 | Luton | 34 |
18 | Nottingham Forest | 32 |
19 | Burnley | 27 |
20 | Sheffield United | 19 |
We however don’t know if Everton will get a points deduction and if they do – whether they will then appeal which seems likely, but you have to feel that Sheffield Utd plus Burnley are definitely down but Luton’s fate could well come down to off-pitch matters.