On aged care pay, we’re focusing on the wrong cost

The substantial increase in pay for aged care workers after the Fair Work Commission’s decision in its work value case for the sector won’t be $3.4 billion a year.

For a start, the FWC is unlikely to accept the union submission for a 25% increase. It’s likely to be substantial, but well short of that. Now that the government has confirmed it will fund whatever the FWC decides, the FWC has a relatively free hand — after all, this is a work value case, so it’s about a fundamental reappraisal of how aged care work should be remunerated, not a minimum wage case or industrial dispute. But the figure is more likely to have a one in front of it than a two.

Second, the FWC is likely to phase in the increase, perhaps over two or three years, and perhaps at different rates for different workers within the sector — starting with those with the highest qualifications, whose retention is crucial.