Met Office State of the UK Climate Report – Watts Up With That?

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

The Met Office are back with their “extreme weather” fraud:

Climate change is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes and number of temperature records the UK experiences.

New analysis of observations shows that extremes of temperature in the UK are most affected by human induced climate change. This means the UK is seeing, on average, more frequent periods of hot weather, bringing challenges for infrastructure, health and wellbeing. The observations also suggest an increase in rainfall extremes.

The new analysis features in this year’s annual publication of the ‘State of the UK Climate’ report. Published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s ‘International Journal of Climatology’, the report is a comprehensive review of the UK climate and significant weather events through 2023. This report is based on observations from the UK’s network of weather stations, using data extending back to the 19^th Century to provide long term context.

Using an example of 28°C, the frequency of days reaching this threshold has increased nearly everywhere across the UK. Where in the 1961-1990 averaging period only London and Hampshire recorded six or more days over 28°C, by the latest decade (2014-2023) this has spread across much of England and Wales, with frequencies in the south east increasing to over 12 days each year in many counties.

Although rainfall has a much higher natural variability than temperature, it is still possible to identify an increasing frequency of the wettest days over time too. By taking the top 5% of wettest days during the 1961-1990 averaging period it is possible to see how frequent these very wet days have been in the most recent decade (2014-2023).

The most recent decade has had around 20% more days of exceptional rainfall compared to the 1961-1990 averaging period. While there is no significant signal for this change being more pronounced in a specific area of the UK, overall, this analysis clearly shows an increase in the number of very wet days in the UK’s climate in recent years compared to what was observed just a few decades ago.

Lead author and Met Office climate scientist, Mike Kendon, said: “Our new analysis of these observations really shines a light on the fastest changing aspects of our weather as a consequence of climate change. Long term averages can be difficult for people to relate to, but what we are showing here is the notable change in frequencies of extreme weather that can have a real impact on people’s lives.

“2023 was another year of interesting and at times significant weather. . But underlying this natural variability is a continuing and increasing influence of climate change which is influencing the weather we experience.”

Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “This report is the authoritative annual summary of the UK climate published as a special supplement in our International Journal of Climatology. It not only helps to highlight the latest knowledge on our changing climate but also enables us to understand the trends, risks and impacts to help inform how we will need to adapt, now and in the future.

“The new analysis of days that are classified as ‘hot’ or having ‘exceptional rainfall’ highlights the increased frequency in high impact extremes we are already experiencing in the UK, and the attribution studies help to understand how human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, are making these extreme events much more likely to happen as our climate continues to change.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/temperature-extremes-and-records-most-affected-by-uks-changing-climate

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It’s the same tired old theme every year – more extreme weather, the climate is changing, and it’s all due (of course) to fossil fuels!

Apparently pleasantly warm weather is now more common than in the 1960s, but equally extremely cold days are less frequent. So how can they say we are having a  dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes? As I have repeatedly argued, London is warmer than Manchester, but does that mean that London’s weather is more extreme?

And if you asked most people if they would like a slightly warmer climate, they would jump at the chance! Hence the Met Office’s need to bang the “extreme weather” drum, so as to scare the public into believing that every bit of bad weather is due to global warming.

The report itself is 121 pages long, and full of largely irrelevant waffle. Clearly the intention is to obfuscate and stop the public from finding out the real story.

But today I want to focus on rainfall, including this Met Office claim:

Although rainfall has a much higher natural variability than temperature, it is still possible to identify an increasing frequency of the wettest days over time too. By taking the top 5% of wettest days during the 1961-1990 averaging period it is possible to see how frequent these very wet days have been in the most recent decade (2014-2023).

The most recent decade has had around 20% more days of exceptional rainfall compared to the 1961-1990 averaging period. While there is no significant signal for this change being more pronounced in a specific area of the UK, overall, this analysis clearly shows an increase in the number of very wet days in the UK’s climate in recent years compared to what was observed just a few decades ago.

Comparing one ten-year period with a 30-year one is a strict no-no, as any statistician would tell you. And the Met Office is stacked with statisticians, so why did they choose to do so? And why choose the 1961-90 for that matter, rather than the 1991-2020 period which is the only one relevant now?

The answer to the second question is that 1961-90 was a much drier interlude, particularly the 1970s. Since then average annual rainfall has risen, but only back to levels seen in periods such as the 1870s and 1920s. It has nothing to do with “changing climate”; indeed the UK still has just the same climate as it has always done. But this does not mean that weather cannot vary tremendously from year to year, so inevitably some years will be wetter then normal, and others drier. Nowhere has the Met Office provided evidence that rainfall trends in the last two centuries are anything other than natural variation.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

Leading flood experts are fully aware of these historical variations. Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University, for instance, describes the 1960s to 80s as being a “flood-poor” period.

And the Met Office’s own graphs give their game away. For both 95th and 99th Percentiles, they show an increase up to the 1990s, but since then the trend is flat.

So much for the “climate is changing” meme!

But why do these graphs only begin in 1960? What are they trying to hide?

The Met Office says that this increasing rainfall intensity is nationwide, and their maps clearly show this is the case for Oxfordshire. So what does the data for Radcliffe Observatory tell us?

The ECA&D charts below only go to 2020, but both confirm that the 1961-90 period was drier than much of the preceding period.

Up to date data confirms that the 2014-2023 average, as used by the Met Office, is at a similar levels to much of the pre-1960 years, where 95th Percentile is concerned.

As for 99th Percentile, it is at record lows. In neither dataset is there any evident long term trend.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi

In short, the Met Office has been caught out attempting to con the public into thinking that rainfall is becoming more extreme, when it is not.