Cote d’Ivoire: Can Ouattara’s Third Term Deliver — or Is Time Up

A View from Afar

On October 25, this year, Ivorians head to the polls in an election that’s less about suspense — and more about soul-searching. President Alassane Ouattara, 82, is running for a controversial third term. Not because the rules invited him — but because he rewrote them.

A decade ago, Ouattara was the unifier: the calm, silver-haired economist from the IMF and World Bank who stepped into a nation shattered by civil war and Laurent Gbagbo’s defiant exit. Back then, Gbagbo’s loyalists hurled the ultimate political insult — “You’re not even Ivorian!” — trying to disqualify him over his northern roots and family ties to Burkina Faso. The world didn’t buy it. The courts didn’t either. And in 2011, Ouattara took power — to cheers, relief, and sky-high expectations.

He delivered. Big time. Côte d’Ivoire became West Africa’s economic tiger — 7-8% growth for years, gleaming highways, energy projects, booming cocoa exports, and Abidjan reborn as a regional hub. Foreign investors flocked in. The IMF gave standing ovations. For a nation weary of chaos, Ouattara was the steady hand that turned lights back on — literally and figuratively.

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But now? The shine’s dulled. In 2020, after promising to step down, Ouattara pivoted — citing the death of his anointed successor — and leaned on a friendly constitutional court to reset his term count. He won. Now he’s back. “The foundation is laid,” he insists. “Now we build the future.” His platform? More infrastructure. More jobs. Better healthcare. Digital transformation. Stability.

The problem? Many Ivorians — especially the 60% under 25 — are asking: “What’s new?” Growth hasn’t trickled down evenly. Unemployment stings. Rural schools and clinics still crumble. And while Ouattara speaks in spreadsheets, young voters want fire, not formulas.

Then there’s the geopolitics. Ouattara’s tight ties to France and the U.S. — including suspicion of hosting a key American drone base in the north — make him suspect in the eyes of Sahel neighbors flirting with Moscow or railing against “neo-colonialism.” To them, he’s the West’s reliable partner — which plays well in Paris and D.C., but less so in Bamako or Ouagadougou.

His challengers? The Constitutional Court knocked out the heavyweights — Laurent Gbagbo, Tidiane Thiam, and former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan. That leaves Ouattara facing Simone Gbagbo, ex–First Lady; Jean-Louis Billon, businessman and MP; Ahoua Don Mello, Gbagbo’s old strategist; and former minister Henriette Lagou. But none have the cash, the media, or the machine to take on the RHDP juggernaut.