MANDERA, Kenya, , February 10 (IPS) – Every morning before sunrise, 10-year-old Amina Adan walks away from school and toward a shrinking water pan on the outskirts of Rhamu, Mandera County. By the time her classmates would be opening exercise books, Amina was already balancing a yellow jerrycan almost half her size.
Her mother, Fatuma Adan, says the choice is no longer between education and chores — it is between water and survival.
“When there is no water, there is no food, and there is no school,” Fatuma explains. “The children must help; we don’t make it through the day.”
Amina’s story reflects a widening crisis across Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), where prolonged drought is reversing hard-won gains on poverty reduction, food security, health, and education — core pillars of the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
A Drought Stretches Systems Beyond Their Limits
According to Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), Mandera remains in the alarm phase, following repeated rainfall failures that saw the October–December 2025 short rains deliver just 30–60 per cent of the long-term average. Water pans have dried up, pasture has collapsed, and households dependent on pastoralism are rapidly losing their main source of food and income.
National food and nutrition security assessments show that more than 2.15 million people in Kenya’s ASAL counties are currently in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, while over 800,000 children aged 6–59 months require treatment for acute malnutrition. County health officials in Mandera report rising admissions to Outpatient Therapeutic Programmes (OTPs) as families exhaust food reserves and milk production from livestock dwindles.
The crisis is not confined to Kenya. Across the Horn of Africa, the United Nations estimates that nearly 24 million people in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia are facing acute water insecurity, following years of recurrent drought and climate shocks. UNICEF warns that 2.7 million children across the region are already out of school due to drought-related displacement, with another 4 million at risk if conditions persist.
“These climate shocks are no longer one-off emergencies,” says a county education officer in Mandera. “They are structural, and they are shaping how — or whether — children grow, learn, and thrive.”
Education Disrupted, Futures Delayed
In Mandera North, schools sit at the front line of the crisis. Teachers describe classrooms thinning out as families migrate in search of pasture and water, taking children with them. Others remain behind but struggle to concentrate amid hunger and exhaustion.
Abdikadir Adan Alio, a county education official in Mandera, says attendance in some drought-affected schools has dropped sharply, with girls disproportionately affected as water collection and household responsibilities fall on them first.
For development experts, the implications go beyond short-term learning loss. Interrupted education weakens human capital, undermines long-term economic productivity, and reduces communities’ ability to adapt to future climate shocks — a direct setback to SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 1 (No Poverty).
“If children miss school year after year, the damage becomes generational,” warns Dr Ali Abdi, a humanitarian education specialist working in northern Kenya.
Health and Nutrition Under Strain
Health workers say drought is accelerating a dangerous cycle of hunger, disease, and vulnerability among children. With water scarce, hygiene suffers, increasing the risk of diarrhoeal diseases that further weaken malnourished children.
At mobile clinics operating in remote parts of Mandera, health teams screen children for malnutrition, provide therapeutic foods, and refer severe cases to stabilisation centres. Many of these services are delivered through partnerships between county governments and humanitarian agencies.
“Early detection is saving lives,” says a nutrition officer involved in outreach programmes. “But the caseload keeps rising, and the distances families travel are growing.”
These pressures directly threaten SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) — goals that had shown gradual progress before climate extremes intensified.
Protection Risks Rise as Coping Mechanisms Fail
As drought erodes livelihoods, families are forced into negative coping strategies. Humanitarian agencies report increased risks of child labour, early marriage, and gender-based violence, particularly in remote settlements where social safety nets are weakest.
Girls are especially vulnerable. When resources run low, education is often the first to be cut.
“Drought doesn’t just take food and water,” says a community leader in Mandera. “It takes safety and dignity from children.”
What Is Working: Integrated, Child-Centred Solutions
Despite the scale of the crisis, evidence from Mandera and other ASAL counties shows that integrated responses can cushion children from the worst impacts and protect progress on the SDGs.
Mobile health and nutrition clinics, supported by county governments and organisations such as UNICEF and Save the Children, are reaching nomadic and displaced families who would otherwise fall outside the health system. These clinics combine nutrition screening, immunisation, and maternal health services, reducing the need for long journeys to fixed facilities.
Cash transfer programmes, implemented by government agencies with support from partners including World Vision, are enabling households to prioritise food, water, and healthcare according to their most urgent needs. Studies show that cash support can significantly reduce negative coping strategies and help keep children in school during shocks.
Meanwhile, investments in water trucking, borehole rehabilitation, and climate-resilient water infrastructure are stabilising access in drought hotspots. Although costly, experts argue these interventions are essential to safeguarding SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and preventing repeated humanitarian emergencies.
Community-based approaches are also proving effective. Trained volunteers conduct nutrition screening at the household level, identifying at-risk children early and linking families to services before conditions deteriorate.
“These interventions work best when they are combined,” says a humanitarian programme manager. “Health alone is not enough. Water, food, income, and protection must move together.”
The Challenge of Scale and Sustainability
While these programmes are saving lives, gaps remain. Funding cycles are often short, and responses remain largely reactive rather than preventive. Local officials say scaling up climate-resilient livelihoods — such as drought-tolerant agriculture, livestock insurance, and alternative income sources — is critical to breaking the cycle.
Development analysts warn that without sustained investment, drought will continue to erode gains across multiple SDGs, forcing repeated emergency responses that are more costly in the long run.
“The question is not whether drought will return,” says Eunice Koech, a climate expert at IGAD. “It is whether systems will be strong enough to protect children when it does.”
Childhood at a Crossroads
Back in Rhamu, Fatuma Adan hopes her daughter will return to school full-time when conditions improve. For now, survival comes first.
“I want Amina to learn,” she says. “But first, we must live.”
As climate shocks intensify across the Horn of Africa, the stakes could not be higher. Without coordinated, long-term action, drought will continue to steal not just water and food — but childhood itself, undermining global commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals.
IPS UN Bureau Report
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