Whereas Venezuela’s skies were relatively unprotected before the U.S. attack in January, Iran has one of the biggest and most varied missile stockpiles in the Middle East, according to regional experts. Its arsenal includes drones and anti-ship weaponry, though the current volume of Iran’s missile inventory remains unclear after its 12-day war with Israel in June.
Iran’s medium‑range ballistic missiles are capable of traveling over 1,200 miles, which includes American bases as far away as western Turkey and across the broader Middle East, including in Israel and the Gulf States.
On Saturday, Iranian state media reported that Iran had, for the first time, tested a sea-based air-defense missile with a range of over 93 miles during military drills this past week in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran’s strategy “is to quickly escalate and export instability in multiple theaters so that the cost is spread, the pain is spread,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a policy institute.
The Gulf States, which are home to a number of American bases, are anxious that any American military strike could lead to blowback against them.
In January, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which are close U.S. allies, said they would not permit the United States to use their airspace for attacks. That stance may not ultimately shield them from Iranian retaliation, experts say.
An Iranian counterattack could strike major cities in Israel. The Israeli military used interceptors to shoot down the majority of Iran’s missiles during the war in June. Yet its supply of interceptors is running low after more than two years of fending off attacks from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, intelligence officials say.
Ms. Vakil said that Iranian officials most likely believed that the “fear factor” of a larger regional war would help dissuade Mr. Trump from attacking.
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