Canada has chance to defeat U.S. at World Baseball Classic

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It’s uncharted territory for Canada at the World Baseball Classic from here on out.

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Canada never had reached the quarterfinals since the inception of the tournament in 2006. That was five unsuccessful tries before finally getting a chance to play in the final eight, which Canada earned on Wednesday by being the top performer in Group A.

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In Group A play, Canada beat Colombia 8-2, lost to Panama 4-3, and then recorded wins over Puerto Rico (3-2) and Cuba (7-2).

Next up is a date with the United States, which backed into the quarterfinals courtesy of Italy’s win over Mexico on Wednesday.

Had Mexico won or held Italy to fewer than five runs, the U.S. would have been eliminated.

Instead, the U.S. finished second in its group behind Italy.

Here’s a breakdown of what fans can expect in the quarterfinal matchup on Friday in Houston, with a scheduled first pitch shortly after 8 p.m. ET.

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WHAT HAS BEEN CANADA’S STRENGTH TO DATE?

Coming in, it was expected the team’s offence would have to carry them, but as it turned out it was the pitching that got them to this point. Cal Quantrill, son of former Blue Jays reliever Paul Quantrill (who is on the coaching staff for Canada), was brilliant in the group-clinching win over Cuba. Quantrill allowed a lone unearned run over five innings, giving up just two hits, to set the tone for the game. Other Canada pitchers who earned wins were Jordan Balazovic (against Puerto Rico) and Mike Soroka (against Colombia). Even the loss to Panama was more about fielding issues than pitching issues as the Panamanians scored three unearned runs off reliever James Paxton.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE U.S.?

The scare the U.S. got in pool play was the result of a stunning 8-6 loss to Italy. Prior to the game, U.S. manager Mark DeRosa was quoted saying the U.S. already had clinched a quarterfinal berth. Well, after the loss to the Italians and some serious backpedalling from DeRosa, who said he mis-spoke, the fate of the U.S. team was left in the hands of those same Italians, who came up big on the final night of the group stage with a 9-1 win over Mexico to win Group B, hand second place to the Americans, and eliminate Mexico.

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But anyone who thinks the Americans are going to be affected by this are kidding themselves. This is still the best on-paper talented team in the tournament and remain a heavy favourite over Canada, despite Canada coming in having won its group and the U.S. having finished second in their own.

WHO GETS THE START?

The United States has Logan Webb, a member of the San Francisco Giants rotation, starting in the quarters. Canada will counter with Soroka, who got that win over Colombia and is currently part of the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation.

Webb tossed three innings in his lone start in the round-robin, giving up a home run and little else.

CANADA-U.S. HISTORY AT WBC

The Canadians have got the better of the United States exactly once in the six WBC tournaments. That was in the first WBC in 2006, when the two countries were in the same pool and Canada won 8-6. The U.S. won each of the next four matchups in pool play. The most recent meeting between the two teams, in 2023, was not a good one for Canada, which lost 12-1 in a game that was called after seven innings because of the run differential rule.

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In Canada’s lone win against the U.S. 20 years ago, Canada had an 8-0 lead and held on for the 8-6 win. Adam Stern was the Canadian star with three hits, including a home run. Despite the win, Canada did not advance following a loss to Mexico. Canada failed to advance on the tie-breaker rules.

WHO’S HOT FOR CANADA?

Miami Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie and Kansas City Royals infielder Abraham Toro have been carrying Team Canada’s offence so far. Caissie is hitting .500 with three doubles and three runs scored. Toro has three doubles, a triple and a homer, and is hitting .467. On the pitching side, Paxton has yet to give up an earned run in 4 1/3 innings and has eight strikeouts, although he was hit up for three unearned runs in that Panama loss.

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WILL CAL RALEIGH SHAKE JOSH NAYLOR’S HAND?

Raleigh, the Seattle Mariners catcher, caught plenty of flack earlier in the tournament when Mariners teammate Randy Arozarena, who was playing for Mexico in the tournament, attempted to shake hands with Raleigh, only to be rebuffed. Arozarena then did an interview and explained precisely how upset he was by his Mariners teammate’s behaviour. Naylor is also a teammate of Raleigh’s in Seattle and it will be interesting to see if Naylor chooses to go the Arozarena route, and more interesting if he does to see how Raleigh handles it.

WHO DOES THE WINNER FACE IN THE SEMIFINALS?

The winner of the Canada-U.S. game goes on to face the winner of the quarterfinal between the Dominican Republic and South Korea. Expected to be waiting in the final from the other side of the bracket would be Japan, although, as the United States found out already in the group stage, upsets do happen.

mganter@postmedia.com

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