Big changes will be happening in the global atmosphere this summer, which could turn the tropical Atlantic from a hotbed into a ghost town, while also setting the stage for better rain chances locally by the end of the year.
To break down what may happen during this hurricane season and beyond, we’re taking a closer look at the current environmental conditions, the latest outlooks, the potential progression of activity, and the implications for North Carolina.
Tale of the Tape
This hurricane season could come down to a tug of war between two environmental heavyweights: warm water in the Atlantic Ocean versus an emerging El Niño in the Pacific.
For the fifth year in a row, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s main development region – which spans from the west coast of Africa into the Caribbean Sea – are warmer than normal entering the summer.
At this point, there is a pronounced gradient across the basin, with eastern areas seeing near-normal temperatures, while it’s much warmer farther west, including in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Even if that warm water, which is favorable for storm formation, lasts throughout the season, that doesn’t mean it will be an active one from start to finish. That’s because of the other main player in the tropics this year: a developing El Niño pattern.
We’re already seeing the telltale warming off the coast of South America associated with El Niño, and as that warmer-than-normal water spreads westward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, it will begin to have atmospheric impacts.
Those include a strengthening of the upper-level winds that blow across the tropical Atlantic, which creates damaging wind shear that hinders storm formation.
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest ENSO alert from last week noted that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are already 0.4°C above normal, which is just shy of the El Niño threshold of +0.5°C.
That could make this an early blooming El Niño by historical standards, perhaps on par with the timing of the record-setting 1997 event.
That early emergence, along with the amount of sub-surface warmth in the Pacific, has inspired headlines about a potential “super El Niño”, but it’s important to note that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the eventual strength of this event.
The latest forecasts show a roughly equal chance of a moderate, strong, or very strong El Niño by next winter. A very strong event – with sea surface temperatures at least 2.0°C above normal – would put it on par with the strongest El Niños on record in 1997-98 and 2015-16, but that’s far from a guarantee.
This Season’s Outlooks
Earlier today, NOAA released its hurricane season outlook for 2026. It’s calling for below normal activity overall, with 8 to 14 named storms (the 30-year average is 14.4), 3 to 6 hurricanes (the average is 7.2), and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (the average is 3.2).
NOAA’s outlook notes the warm water in place across the Atlantic, as well as the developing El Niño, but the degree to which each one will shape the season is still up in the air.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
Other forecast groups have released their own outlooks this spring. The veteran team at Colorado State University is predicting slightly below normal activity, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
They expect a moderate to strong El Niño in place by the peak of the season this fall, with that El Niño and its increased wind shear in the Atlantic being the dominant factor in this hurricane season.
NC State’s forecast team, led by Dr. Lian Xie, uses a statistical approach based on historical years with similar environmental conditions as this one. Their outlook calls for near to slightly below normal activity this year, with 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes.
While predicting hurricane landfalls this far in advance is trickier and often at the whims of where local weather patterns like high pressure systems set up throughout the season, some outlooks do hint at where we may see more activity.
After no hurricanes made landfall in the mainland United States in 2025, the Colorado State team predicts a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the US this year, which is lower than the historical average of 43%.
The NC State team calls for two to five named storms forming in the Gulf, which is near normal, and one to three named storms in the Caribbean, which is slightly below normal. Last year, only one storm – Hurricane Melissa – developed in the Caribbean due to high wind shear across that region for most of the season.
Possible Seasonal Progression
This hurricane season could be split into two distinct halves, with the first being more active and the second quieter as the El Niño pattern takes hold.
While conditions aren’t the most favorable for storm formation now in May – basin-wide wind shear is high at the moment – that should subside as we head into summer, and the warm water could then become a driving factor for storm formation.
As of May 20, average sea surface temperatures in the main development region are 0.27°C above the 30-year average. While that’s nowhere near the record warm sea surface temperatures in the spring of 2024, the Atlantic is now at a similar level of warmth as at this point last year.
We saw a flurry of early season activity in 2025, with three named storms including Chantal forming before the middle of July. Based on that, we could see another fairly fast start to this hurricane season.
But once El Niño’s atmospheric impacts kick in, that could cause an abrupt reduction in Atlantic activity. In both 1997 and 2015, when strong El Niños had emerged by late summer, only two named storms formed after the third week of September.
It’s worth noting that one of those storms in 2015 had a big – if indirect – impact, as moisture from the fringes of Hurricane Joaquin fed an upper-level low pressure system that produced heavy rain in parts of the Carolinas.
So tropical impacts may still be possible late in this hurricane season, but the odds are lower due to that El Niño-induced wind shear. We see that reflected in historical hurricane tracks along our coastline.
In 50 previous ENSO-neutral and La Niña years, 59 named storms passed within 100 miles of Wilmington, for an average of 1.18 per year. In El Niño years, that rate is cut in half to just 0.58 storms per year, on average, with 15 named storms in 26 years.
What’s at Stake for Our State
The current drought began in part due to a lack of tropical impacts last fall, and it could get worse if we miss out on that tropical contribution to our rainfall again this year.
Wilmington averages more than eight inches of precipitation in both August and September, and past research at our office found that some coastal areas receive up to 20% of their warm-season precipitation from tropical systems. That’s a big chunk of rain to miss out on if the tropics don’t deliver.
An active start to the hurricane season could be our best chance to see solid rainfall. In June, July, and August, the Carolina coast is one of the preferred areas for tropical storm formation thanks to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the tendency of stalled cold fronts offshore to become tropical, as Chantal did last year.
If storms stay away from our coastline again this year, then it would also continue a notable streak. It has been almost six years – dating back to Isaias in August 2020 – since the last storm made landfall at hurricane strength in North Carolina. That’s our longest streak without a landfalling hurricane since the nearly eight-year gap between Isabel in 2003 and Irene in 2011.
Of course, we haven’t been totally shielded from tropical impacts in recent years. Since 2020, the Mountains have been devastated by remnant storms including Fred and Helene, the Piedmont has seen heavy rain and flooding from Chantal and Debby, and coastal areas have sustained soakings from the likes of Ian, Ophelia, and the unnamed Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.
But hurricanes do tend to bring amplified impacts, including high winds and storm surge, and prompt evacuations like coastal areas haven’t seen on a widespread scale since Florence in 2018.
While a stronger El Niño emerging this summer could shut down tropical activity sooner, that could also be a promising sign for better rainfall later this year. As we enter our cool season in the fall and winter, a stronger jet stream should bring more moisture-rich weather systems in from the Gulf or along our coastline.
In both 1997 and 2015, the summer was dry – including our driest August on record in 1997. After that, wetter conditions began by the fall, including the 6th-wettest October and 2nd-wettest November on record in 2015. And with strong El Niño patterns in place, we then had our state’s wettest winter on record in 1997-98, and the wettest December on record in 2015.
In summary, El Niño has the potential to reduce tropical impacts by late summer but ramp up our rain chances by the end of the year. That means a lot is riding on this pattern, from the evolution of hurricane season to the future of our drought.
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