It’s a big deviation from the fundamentals that build wealth: understanding company performance, evaluating management quality, and analyzing dividends. Instead, prediction markets encourage investors to put it all on red.
This reflects a broader trend in parts of the industry toward blending investing with more entertainment-like features. As someone who feels strongly that self-directed investors deserve platforms that serve their interests first, I think it’s time we had an honest conversation about where this is heading.
What’s at stake
Self-directed investing has grown up. These platforms are no longer the “play money” accounts that advisors of previous generations once dismissed. Accounts have surged from 2.3 million in 2020 to over 11 million by 2023, with total assets exceeding $1 trillion. Today, 45% of Canadian investors use these platforms. The success is undeniable, which makes the growing drift we’re seeing DIY investing take toward gamification a cause for pause.
The concern isn’t prediction markets as a standalone concept, but as part of an investment portfolio, they can do harm. In all-or-nothing markets, no new wealth is created. Money simply transfers from the 71% who lose to the 29% who win. And the house always takes its cut.
The best online brokers, ranked and compared
There’s also what this represents: platforms deploying the same psychological tactics that keep people scrolling social media. Most of us already understand how attention-based platforms work—should investing follow the same path?
Gamification maximizes engagement. Leaderboards ranking you against other traders. Badges for your tenth trade. Animated celebrations when you buy a stock. Push notifications creating urgency.
At the extreme, these features encourage overtrading, which can erode returns through poor timing, currency conversion costs, and tax implications.
The real risk
The risk goes deeper than just platform features. Young investors today face enormous pressure: housing feels out of reach, retirement seems abstract, and headlines about AI displacement and economic uncertainty create constant stress. In that environment, platforms touting quick wealth through frequent trading can feel like the only answer.
But it’s the opposite of what we know works. The tried-and-true approach is starting early, staying consistent, and tuning out noise. It’s boring, but it’s effective.
When disruptors introduced accessible pricing and better experiences, they did the industry a favour. But for those who are new or less savvy, the merger of investing, prediction markets, and social media amplifies risk. We may be one or two market corrections away from seeing a generation fall further behind.
Red flags to watch for
So, what should investors watch for? Of course, not all platforms are the same. Ask yourself: Is this helping me invest, or strongly encouraging me to trade? If your investing platform feels more like slot machine than a financial tool, it’s worth asking what behaviours it’s encouraging.
Understand what’s being offered. Commission-free trading sounds great, but don’t confuse this with the idea that “all trading is free”. Investing platforms are complex and expensive to develop and operate. To cover costs and return capital to backers, these platforms need new revenue sources. In this market environment, speculative products (such as crypto and options) are easier to scale and appear more exciting than traditional offers. These products encourage riskier investing practices (borrowing on margin, buying and selling more frequently), which may not be in the best interest of the investors. Knowing how these features work, and why they exist, is how you stay in control.
A higher standard
Spotting red flags is only half the answer. Investor success, not short-term dopamine, should be our focus. This won’t self-correct; it requires leadership from both sides of the industry.
For established firms, there is a need to continue accelerating product innovation. The same technology that can nudge investors toward overtrading can nudge them toward smarter decisions: AI that prompts reflection instead of reaction, and gamification that rewards long-term thinking rather than quick hits.
For disruptors, it means staying true to their original mission if it was genuinely about making investing more accessible, not extracting revenue through speculation.
Real wealth is built through discipline and consistency over time. That’s what we should optimize for.
Discussion about this post