Are Putin’s Days Numbered?
Russia has been at limited war with Ukraine for over 4 years. There is no end in sight. Why? The answer to that question sits squarely on the President of Russia’s shoulders.
In 2015, separatist forces, backed by Russian direct military support, encircled what was left of Ukraine’s best military units in the Battle of Debatsevo, Donbass. At that exact moment in time Russia had a choice to make: chase the battered remnants of the Ukrainian Army out of the rest of Donestk and Lugansk Oblasts; or cease the pursuit and make peace. Despite warnings from “The Rifleman”, the famous commander of separatist forces in the Donetsk Oblast { allegedly also a senior Russian intelligence officer}, that failing to pursue the Ukrainians would lead to the Russians facing a far more built up Ukrainian Army in a near certain future conflict, Putin chose to withdraw support for any further advance. He famously harkened on the shared brotherhood of the Ukrainian and Russian peoples, and advocated that peace could be found in constitutional amendments that granted the peoples of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts rights to autonomy within Ukraine. This was Putin’s first and most egregious mistake of this war.
His second mistake was to agree to the first Minsk Accord, and then the Second a year later. Both were obviously designed to give Ukraine time to rebuild its military, and fortify regions of the Donbass it still controlled. This was later admitted to by former German Angela Merkel, but it was obvious to any person schooled in the art of diplomacy and war. Putin would obviously fit that title.
The obvious became the evident when in February, 2022 Russia was forced to commit to a “Special Military Operation” to defend the newly created “Republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Ukrainian Army had deployed its newly created, NATO funded and trained, army to the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, and from all appearances the Ukrainians were ready to take back the territories. Putin chose to boldly confront NATO over this, and chose to lay the real gauntlet down. Russia, he said, was no longer prepared to be pushed around by NATO, and its never ending eastern expansion toward Russia’s borders. He demanded a new treaty that rolled back NATO’s presence and influence along Russia’s borders, or he would defend them by force. It appeared at the time that Putin was reasserting Russia’s deterrence. A bold move, and a necessary one given the disrespecting of Russia’s core national interests by NATO.
The problem with Putin’s stand was that he was apparently bluffing. After NATO refused to respect, or even acknowledge Russia’s strategic concerns, Putin ordered the Russian military to invade Ukraine. This is mistake number three. Putin ordered the Russian Army into combat at the end of February. A time when the ground was still hard enough to support tanks and mechanized vehicles. However, as every Russian knows, its isn’t long after that when those same fields turn to mud and stop armored movement. Parts of the Russian Army became bogged down in mud, while tanks that took to the roads were ambushed by US supplied shoulder fired antitank missiles. The portion of the Russian army that entered from Belarus made better progress and soon occupied neighboring communities of Kiev. The situation looked desperate for Ukraine, and its bargaining position was at an all time low.
Then Putin makes his 4th bad decision. He again reverts back to the “brotherly peoples” story and in Ankara, Turkey he comes to an agreement with Ukrainian President Zelensky to end the Special Military Operation. Taking a quick and relatively easy way out of the invasion appealed to Putin’s “low cost” strategy of war and diplomacy. Without anything being required of the Ukrainians to prove good faith, he volunteered a Russian Army withdrawal from Kiev and the territory to its north. No sooner had the Russians completed this show of good faith, the Ukrainians denied there was ever a deal and continued the war.
The proof is clear. Putin’s conduct of diplomacy and warfare was a near complete failure by 2022. However, in many ways, his failures since then have been even worse. Putin, it appeared, was all bluff. The US and NATO began calling Russia a “paper tiger”. A toothless old beast. A relic of history. They called the Russian Army weak given the months and sometimes years it took them to take a single city- let alone having to withdraw from Kherson because they could not keep it supplied. In the beginning of the war US President Biden claimed he could not supply Ukraine with fighter jets, because he didn’t want to start World War 3. Two years later all of NATO was supplying Ukraine with fighter jets. What did Putin do? Nothing. He huffed and he puffed, but did nothing. Ditto for tanks and artillery. Ditto for long range and cruise missiles. Nothing.
Sweden and Finland became so emboldened by Russia’s nonresponse that hey joined NATO without fear for the consequences. The EU and NATO publicly acknowledged the funding of Ukraine’s war that was and is killing thousands of Russians. What did Putin do? Nothing. He threatened, but each time that threat was empty. It was never carried out. Russia’s power as a deterrent to stabilize competing forces in the world was crushed. US President Trump decided it was a good time for him to feed on the bones of Russia’s sphere of influence. Moldova was overtaken by the EU. Georgia nearly repeated that fate. Armenia decided to ally itself separately from Russia, and closer to NATO. The Syrian government was overthrown. The Venezuela government was decapitated. Iran was attacked by the US, which remains the case today. The Cuban government has been threatened with invasion. It all comes back to the doorsteps of one man – Putin.
His poor judgement and appreciation of the situation has cost Russia dearly. The war that he constantly tried to avoid by appeasement has resulted in a long proxy war that has cost untold amount of Russian lives, and resources. It has cornered both Russia and China, and undermined the economic community of BRICS. In short, it has diminished the reputation that Russia not too long ago enjoyed of being the great nation that defeated Nazi Germany. Even today, simple steps could be taken to end the war in Ukraine quickly in Russia’s favor. For example: Only a handful of bridges span the Dnieper River that connects Eastern and Western Ukraine. Destroying these bridges would halt almost all supply of weapons and resources from NATO to Ukrainian Army formations fighting in Eastern Ukraine. This could have happened at any time in the last 4 years. It would have saved hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of lives. Many of those Russian. Putin failed to order this. In effect, he has prolonged the war and emboldened Russia’s enemies by his failure to do what is obvious and necessary.
I once admired Russian President as a statesman. His ability to stabilize and grow Russia was impressive. However, it appears he forgot his own history. Afterall, it was the failure to put down the Chechen revolt that helped bring him into power as the strong man Russians love, and it was his ruthless pursuit of the second Chechen War that cemented him in the hearts of Russians. He now appears to be like the ineffective leader who oversaw the Chechens defeat the Russian Army, and no longer the strong man who acted to succeed. Is it any wonder why Putin’s days could be numbered?
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