3 MLB Futures Bets to Make After the Trade Deadline

With the dust settled from the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline, there are plenty of new faces in new places as well as lots of speculation over the biggest winners and losers.

It can also be a good time to make a futures wager, but perhaps not for the reason you think.

Deadline deals typically have less of an impact on the remainder of the regular season than they are credited for. There just aren’t that many games left, and even the biggest stars won’t make more than a two-win difference over a stretch of just 50 games. Where they become more important is in the postseason, where every inning and every at-bat becomes far more significant. So the ideal wager identifies where the market is overvaluing potential regular-season trade impact, or undervaluing potential playoff implications.

With that in mind, here are three futures wagers to play right now.

AL East Winner: Tampa Bay (+100, BetMGM)

The Tampa Bay Rays entered the week with only a 2 1/2 game lead on the New York Yankees, and the free-wheeling Boston Red Sox — who entered five games back of Tampa — overshadowed both teams at the deadline.

But catcher Adley Rutschman, who has had recurring injury issues in recent seasons, is far from a surefire success at Fenway Park. As good as Boston has been recently, there’s almost certainly a regression coming.

Meanwhile, the Yankees disappointed their fans with a relatively inactive deadline despite a litany of injury woes in their lineup. If anything, you’d favor the Rays to add a game or two to their advantage between now and whenever Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge can return.

Getting the division leaders at even money to hold on is a good wager, no doubt made less expensive by bettors overreacting to Boston’s deadline moves.

NL Top Playoff Seed: Atlanta Braves: (+700, FanDuel)

While the Los Angeles Dodgers went out and got Tarik Skubal, the Atlanta Braves mainly made moves on the fringes.

Even so, Skubal can only pitch every fifth day. And Walt Weiss’s group is playing as well as anyone after recovering from a June swoon, and recently got Ronald Acuna Jr. back into the lineup after the 2023 NL MVP missed six weeks with a hamstring strain.

With the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins both selling at the deadline, there’s reason to believe the Braves could have an easier run to the end of the season than the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers and thus have the best shot to beat the Dodgers to the top NL spot.

To Miss The Playoffs: Houston Astros (+132, FanDuel)

The Houston Astros have the game’s best hitter in Yordan Alvarez and are one of baseball’s hottest teams. Even so, their recent charge to the top of the AL West could be fool’s gold.

Their -26 run differential and 556 runs allowed are both easily the worst among teams currently holding a playoff spot. And as it stands, it’s division title or bust in terms of getting in.

They have a couple of games on two challengers in the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. But their inability to prevent runs could be magnified down the stretch.