EVs to make up over half of Singapore vehicle sales in 2026, BMI says

Singapore’s electric vehicle (EV) market is no longer waiting for a breakthrough moment. In 2026, the shift is already visible on the road, in dealerships, and across public car parks where chargers have become a more common part of the urban landscape. But the next stage of growth may be harder than the first.

EV sales in Singapore are forecast to rise 34.3 per cent in 2026 to 34,940 units, according to BMI Country Risk and Industry Research, a Fitch Group unit. That would lift EVs to 54.6 per cent of total vehicle sales this year, underlining how quickly electric mobility has moved from early adopter territory into the mainstream.

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The wider fleet is also changing. BMI expects Singapore’s EV fleet to reach 92,705 units in 2026, or 10.7 per cent of the country’s total vehicle fleet. By 2035, the research house expects EVs to account for 44 per cent of all vehicles in Singapore, with EV sales making up 85 per cent of total vehicle sales.

Those numbers point to a market that is accelerating fast. Yet they also highlight a more complicated reality: Singapore’s EV transition is becoming increasingly dependent on policy design, charging availability, fleet electrification and the economics of ownership in a country that does not want too many cars in the first place.

A fast-growing market, but not a typical one

Singapore’s EV adoption has gathered pace rapidly in 2026. As of June, EVs accounted for 70 per cent of new vehicle registrations. In the first half of the year, EV adoption reached a record 62.4 per cent of new car registrations, up 110 per cent year on year.

The first quarter marked an important turning point. EVs made up 57.6 per cent of new car registrations, or 7,679 vehicles, the first time electric cars outsold internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles combined, according to BMI. In June alone, EVs accounted for 4,791 new vehicle registrations.

This makes Singapore one of Southeast Asia’s most advanced EV markets by adoption share, even if its absolute vehicle volumes remain small compared with larger neighbours such as Indonesia, Thailand or Malaysia. The city-state’s high-income consumer base, compact geography and strong regulatory capacity make it well suited to EV rollout. Range anxiety is less severe than in large countries, while dense housing and public car parks allow charging infrastructure to be planned with more central coordination.

But Singapore is also unlike most car markets. Vehicle ownership is deliberately constrained through the Certificate of Entitlement system, high registration costs and a long-standing “car-lite” strategy that prioritises public transport. That means EV adoption can grow quickly as a share of new sales, even while the total number of private cars remains tightly managed.

BMI expects passenger EV sales growth to moderate over the longer term, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3 per cent between 2026 and 2035. The constraint is not only consumer demand. It is the structure of Singapore’s transport policy.

Incentives are doing heavy lifting

Government incentives remain one of the most important drivers of adoption. Singapore’s EV Early Adoption Incentive, which runs until December 2026, provides new electric cars and taxis with a 45 per cent rebate on the Additional Registration Fee, capped at US$5,864 in 2026.

The Enhanced Vehicular Emissions Scheme also supports demand, offering rebates of up to about US$17,592 for qualifying cars in 2026 and around US$15,637 in 2027. These incentives matter because Singapore is one of the world’s most expensive places to own a car. Even a cheaper EV can carry a high upfront cost once taxes, fees and the Certificate of Entitlement are included.

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At the same time, policy is becoming more exacting. From 2026, the Vehicular Emissions Scheme band thresholds were recalibrated to align with stricter real-world measurements under the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure. BMI said this will affect the rebates and surcharges applied to new vehicle registrations.

The recalibration is important because Singapore is not simply trying to replace petrol cars with electric cars. It is trying to reduce transport emissions while maintaining tight control over road usage. In that context, incentives must encourage cleaner vehicles without undermining the broader push towards public transport.

This is where the country’s EV story differs from other Southeast Asian markets. Thailand and Indonesia are using EV policy partly to build manufacturing supply chains. Singapore’s focus is demand-side adoption, infrastructure readiness and emissions reduction within a dense urban transport system.

Chinese brands change the price equation

Another major force behind Singapore’s EV momentum is the arrival of more affordable models, particularly from Chinese manufacturers. BYD has become the standout example.

According to BMI, BYD accounted for 25 per cent of Singapore’s passenger vehicle market in the first half of 2026, compared with 12.5 per cent for Toyota. In the first quarter, BYD represented 24.3 per cent of new vehicle registrations with 3,239 units, making it the market leader.

This reflects a wider regional pattern. Chinese EV makers have been expanding aggressively across Southeast Asia, bringing lower-cost models, battery expertise and faster product cycles. In markets where EVs were once associated mainly with premium brands, Chinese manufacturers have helped shift the conversation towards affordability and practicality.

For Singapore buyers, the impact is amplified by the cost of ownership. Any reduction in the vehicle’s base price can make a meaningful difference once rebates and registration costs are applied. But it also increases competitive pressure on Japanese, Korean and European automakers that have long been familiar names in Singapore.

Charging network becomes the next test

As EVs move into the mainstream, charging infrastructure becomes more than a convenience issue. It becomes a confidence issue.

Singapore had around 30,500 EV charging points as of March 2026, nearly double the roughly 15,300 recorded in November 2024. The government aims to install 60,000 charging points by 2030 under the Singapore Green Plan 2030, including 40,000 in public car parks and 20,000 at private properties such as residential developments and offices.

That target matters because many Singaporeans live in high-rise public or private housing and do not have access to private garages. Unlike landed home owners in other markets, they depend heavily on shared charging infrastructure in car parks, workplaces and commercial areas.

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The charging market is also getting more competitive. BMI said there were 36 EV charging operators in Singapore as of July 2026, although it expects consolidation as companies compete in a crowded field. In June, SP Mobility completed its acquisition of ChargEco, integrating more than 1,000 public charging points and becoming the operator of Singapore’s largest EV charging network.

Regulation is also evolving. In March 2026, Singapore raised its national EV charging standard from Technical Reference 25 to SS 722. The new standard includes requirements for smart-grid integration, electrical safety, battery-swapping protocols and updated direct-current fast-charging specifications.

Fleets may drive the next wave

Commercial vehicles could become an important part of the next growth phase. BMI forecasts commercial EV sales to rise 18.5 per cent in 2026 to 2,652 units, after growing 63.4 per cent in 2025. From 2026 to 2035, commercial EV sales are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.4 per cent.

The drivers are clear: pressure on businesses to decarbonise supply chains, government and municipal fleet electrification, and better charging infrastructure. Incentives also help. The Commercial Vehicles Emissions Scheme, which runs until March 2027, provides incentives of up to about US$15,637 for the least-polluting commercial vehicles and penalties of up to around US$11,728 for the most polluting.

For heavy vehicles, the Heavy Vehicle Zero Emissions Scheme supports businesses registering new zero-tailpipe-emission heavy goods vehicles and buses. The incentive was reduced to about US$11,728 from September 2026, except for vehicles with a maximum laden weight above 7,000kg, after strong take-up and a narrowing cost gap with internal combustion models.

BMI expects Singapore’s electric heavy commercial vehicle segment to remain small at about 212 units in 2026, but forecasts it to reach 1,131 units by 2035. Bus fleet electrification should also provide medium-term support.

Still, not all consumer sentiment is moving in one direction. A 2026 study cited by BMI found that 32 per cent of respondents planned to buy an internal combustion engine vehicle over the next two years, up from 26 per cent in 2024. Concerns over charging availability and hidden costs were among the reasons.

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That is the paradox of Singapore’s EV transition. Adoption is rising quickly, but future growth will not come from a simple expansion of private car ownership. Public transport remains central: MRT, light rail and bus networks recorded an average of 7.2 million daily rides in 2023, and the government wants at least 80 per cent of households to be within a 10-minute walk of a train station by 2030.

Singapore’s EV market is therefore entering a more mature phase. The easy story is that electric cars are winning. The harder story is what comes next: keeping incentives calibrated, making charging reliable, electrifying fleets, and ensuring EV adoption supports, rather than competes with, the country’s broader car-lite future.

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