Premier Danielle Smith has long expressed a desire to put the separatist issue to rest after the referendum. United Conservative Party activists stand in the way of her wish.
Now that the broad Alberta public has decisively rejected the separatist idea, the debate is returning to where it began: within Smith’s own political coalition.
The more energy she must expend on taming UCP turbulence and any challenges to her leadership, the less time she can spend on actual government priorities. And could the disappearance of the UCP’s lead in the polls and the NDP’s recent byelection victory in what used to be a cabinet minister’s safe seat be a sign that Albertans have noticed her focus appears to be more on her base than on everyone else?
In a videotaped speech Smith released Tuesday evening, she asserted her government has a “clear mandate” to support a united Canada, and begin the “next chapter.” And the country’s current state, with pro-pipeline Mark Carney as prime minister, is one the premier believes could soothe the disillusionment that created the recent push for independence.
“So tonight I want to invite every Albertan who may still feel hopeless or frustrated with the past direction of our country, to believe and hope in Canada again,” she said.
“Because although our country isn’t perfect and there is still much work to be done, I believe that Canada is on the rise again.”
That’s a video message aimed at separatists and many of her own partisans, who appear to have become synonymous.
Surveys suggest that Alberta independence is a phenomenon almost solely contained inside the United Conservative voter base and party membership.
And the referendum results appear to bear that out: the province’s major cities wanted to stay in Canada, and so did almost all rural ridings, as UCP-friendly as they are.
Independence supporters watch for voting results in the referendum on separation. Their side only mustered one-quarter of the votes. (John Ulan/The Canadian Press)
The western Canadian unity question will no longer preoccupy international media, and no longer pose the threat to business and investor certainty that chamber of commerce types have discussed.
But certainty for the premier’s future and her party’s direction? That’s not as clear — not after so many thousand United Conservatives pursued independence, as their party leader promoted Canadian unity alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“Our own government is working against a large percentage of its base,” said Mitch Sylvestre the day after Albertans voted “remain” by a three-to-one margin. He’s not only the leader of the separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, he’s also a prominent organizer within the UCP.
“They’ve made a decision, and, you know, they’re going to have to live with the consequences.”
He and APP fellow traveller Jeff Rath have mused about trying to push Smith out of the party leadership.
On Tuesday, he also spoke of taking his separatist cadre out of the UCP if it can’t transform the party into a pro-separatist vehicle.
Throughout his lengthy campaign for a pro-independence citizen’s petition and then to have a true “leave” referendum, Sylvestre said he didn’t want to split the party “because I didn’t want to split up the vote.”
“But at some point, you know, at some point you have to decide that if that’s not working, then you have to go another direction.”
Smith will have to fight to keep the separatists and federalists within the same tent, and there are early indications that a pro-Smith, anti-separatist movement will line up behind her in that fight.
Moderates and old Progressive Conservatives from that side of the Wildrose/PC unity party may show up in force at late November’s annual UCP convention to rival what their more hardened conservative counterparts used to term “the freedom movement.”
Smith has reported that 6,900 party members have already registered to attend the Calgary gathering — more than showed up at last year’s gathering or at 2024’s, when she campaigned for and secured a 91.5 per cent support vote in a leadership review.
Mitch Sylvestre was an influential figure at the 2024 UCP convention, and intends to be the same again this November. (Jason Markusoff/CBC)
Discontent after the referendum defeat may push more UCP riding associations to demand another leadership review, following on the lead of the Highwood and Calgary-Buffalo constituencies. But there have been several more pulling in a pro-Smith direction, passing resolutions in support of Smith’s continuing leadership and against a leadership review.
Two factions showing up in force, each trying to overwhelm the other? That could be a recipe for even more friction than has been on display at past gatherings, especially now that the fault line isn’t PC and Wildrose — it’s federalist and separatist.
But while APP’s Sylvestre and Rath may be more resolved to break up the UCP if that’s what it takes, they don’t stand for all separatists in a movement that’s wide-ranging and leaderless (and as of Monday, officially defeated and perhaps somewhat demoralized).
Sylvestre attended Saturday’s rally at the legislature, but wasn’t asked to speak alongside other top organizers and an Ultimate Fighting Championship mixed martial artist.
Chris Scott, frontman of Let’s Talk Alberta, believes Sylvestre has his own political ambitions and ideas that others don’t share.
“He thinks that if somehow the UCP has a hard-core, independence-minded, Alberta sovereigntist as premier, that they will get a better outcome on a referendum,” Scott said.
He believes that won’t happen, at least not quickly after a 25 per cent vote for Option 2.
Scott said it might be more of a long march now toward the independence he believes is inevitable. He’s applied to run for a spot on the UCP’s board of directors at the convention, in hopes he can help push the party along that road.
Scott agreed that Smith’s internal support is in trouble, but said she could shore it up by more firmly supporting the “sovereign Alberta within a United Canada” that she’s long spoken of — beyond the immigration or judicial selection powers she’s proposed with some of her other nine referendum questions.
By that, the Let’s Talk Alberta activist means starting Alberta’s own tax collection and pension agencies.
Smith already floated those ideas through the Alberta Next panel last year, and found them unpopular. They probably couldn’t marshal popular support any more than Alberta independence.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is asking those who voted for a referendum on separation to believe in Canada again.
And at the same time as Smith works toward survival beyond her party’s convention, there are other dates to eyeball.
Now that Oct. 19 is behind Smith, United Conservatives (and their rivals) will pivot toward Oct. 18. The one on next year’s calendar: the fixed date for the 2027 Alberta election.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi repeated Tuesday his accusations that Smith’s referendum machinations are just for her own self-preservation, and that the decline of public faith in Smith has buoyed his own party’s prospects for victory.
“Every time Danielle Smith is offered the choice to do what’s right for Alberta or do what’s right for Danielle Smith, she’ll pick Danielle Smith every single time,” Nenshi told reporters.
This may be a rare case on which Alberta separatists and the NDP leader agree: that they don’t reckon Alberta’s premier can put the big national unity question behind her.
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