Can A New Covid-19 Strain And Ukraine Invasion Stop Travel’s Comeback?

Yet another Covid strain is threatening a fragile travel industry recovery. Russia just invaded Ukraine. But in the world’s tourism hotspots, officials are hoping for a bright future — and keeping a watchful eye on advance bookings.

After a pandemic that lasted longer than anyone expected, it’s a one-two punch that airlines, car rental companies, cruise lines, and hotels don’t need. And, of course, neither do travelers, who are busy tcinking about spring break and summer vacations. 

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The bad news: BA.2, a more infectious omicron variant, will almost certainly affect some popular destinations. So will Russia’s military action against Ukraine. The good news: As of now, it looks like the repercussions won’t be severe and, in some cases, may not even be noticeable. Interviews with tourism executives and travelers in one popular destination suggest that the travel recovery could be real this time.

How will BA.2 affect tourism?

BA.2, which the World Health Organization classifies as a variant of concern, is on travelers’ radar. Although omicron cases have fallen, as have many restrictions, health officials remain worried that BA.2, which is 30% more transmissible than omicron, may begin to spread, starting yet another wave of infections.

If BA.2 takes off — and it’s still too early to tell if it will — that could prompt yet another round of travel restrictions and closures. If that happens during the summer vacation planning season in March and April, it could put a dent in bookings. The most vulnerable markets are international, where flight demand is already depressed. 

How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect travel?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already prompted flight diversions and cancellations. Just yesterday, the U.K. banned Aeroflot from its airspace and Delta Air Lines suspended its code-sharing agreement with the Russian flag carrier. In retaliation, Russia banned British Airways. Cruise lines with Russian itineraries this summer have started canceling those ports of call. Those disruptions were to be expected. 

But how will the invasion play out long-term? As far as tourism is concerned, the effects are negligible. Russia isn’t a popular destination for American tourists. Although reliable statistics on inbound U.S. tourists are hard to come by, most sources say fewer than 100,000 American tourists visited Russia during the pandemic, and visitor numbers are well off their peak of around 200,000 visitors reached in 2017.

Some American travelers are in “wait and see” mode

Despite the twin threats to tourism’s recovery, travelers appear to be generally optimistic about the future. The latest read on travel sentiment by the Morning Consult suggests 63% of Americans are comfortable going on vacation, unchanged from the previous week. That’s just 2 percentage points shy of the tracker’s all-time high, recorded July 4.

Likewise, 45% of Americans said they are comfortable flying domestically, up 1 point from the previous week. Comfort with flying internationally also edged a point higher, to 32%. That’s at about the same level as travel sentiment in October, just before the omicron variant emerged. 

But not all Americans are in “wait-and-see” mode. Cathy Lussiana, a retired human resources manager from Montrose, Colo., reports that some Americans are already traveling. She’s touring southern Africa and has encountered many Americans on her journey. A tour leader at Thornybush Game Reserve in Kruger Park said some U.S. travelers haven’t waited for the “all clear” from the State Department. They’re going now.

“In South Africa, before Covid, tourists were typically from the U.K. first, then Germany, then America,” she says. “As tourism is opening again, it’s Americans who are now in the lead.”

In South Africa, a long wait for visitors

But it’s been a long wait for visitors to come back, and it seems to be getting longer. The return of tourism to places like Cape Town can’t come soon enough. Lizanne Gomes, owner of Jeep Tours Cape Town, says her business is still down 80% from pre-Covid. 

“We’re still waiting for the large meetings and incentive groups to come back, but they have been slow to return,” she says.

Marine biologist Justin Blake, who works with The Mount Nelson Hotel in Cape Town to offer exclusive tours of Cape Town’s Atlantic seal colonies and kelp forests, has shifted most of his business online. He now offers virtual tours of the marine life, but says that as tourism returns, he’s open to doing more real experiences. 

“I just woke up to a new booking this morning,” he says. “But it’s more of a niche tour, tailored to people’s interests.” 

Sabu Siyakha, owner of Ubizo Events & Tours, says there are signs of life, despite BA.2 and the Ukraine invasion. His company offers guided tours of Langa, a township near Cape Town. The full-day experience features art galleries, music and cultural heritage. For a long time — a very long time — Cape Town was a “ghost town,” he says.

Things are coming back now. Slowly coming back. Slowly picking up,” he says.  

“It’s been an interesting ride,” agrees Raymond Endean, a managing partner at the Latitude Aparthotel by Totalstay in Cape Town.

His property, which opened just before the pandemic, has seen steadily increasing business despite wave after wave of infections. The last two months have been particularly promising — the busiest ever. 

“It’ll be interesting to see how the whole year goes,” he adds. 

What’s next for tourism?

At the Nova Constantia Boutique Residence in the winelands of Constantia, there’s a sense that a recovery is well underway, despite the troubles with BA.2 and Ukraine. On a recent Saturday morning, the boutique hotel was running at full occupancy. The staff was fully masked and practicing social distancing in accordance with South Africa’s guidelines. 

“It will be nice when we don’t have to wear a mask anymore,” one staff member told me. 

Wine harvest starts in April and safari season begins in late summer, so there are plenty of opportunities to make up for lost time. 

It may be a while before the bigger questions are answered. And those are: How will BA.2 affect tourism over the long term? And how will the Ukraine invasion affect visitors to Europe beyond this summer? These questions apply not only to South Africa but to other destinations. Travelers will need to weigh the ever-present risks of visiting a place against the rewards of seeing an exotic destination like South Africa’s wine country.

And we’ll know what they decide soon enough.