Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Well, for my usual unfathomable reasons and motives, I decided to take a look at individual model runs from the Computer Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).
And again, for no particular reason, I took a look at the three NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model runs prepared for the CMIP6 all-forcing simulation of the recent past. These are all available at the marvelous KNMI website. And here’s what those three runs look like.
Figure 1. Three model runs of the NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model. These are of the SSP245 scenario. The vertical black line shows the 2014 end of the hindcast period and the start of the following forecast period.
Umm … err … seriously? Three runs of the same climate model using the same forcings and starting conditions and inputs are that far apart when trying to hindcast the past? I mean, not even trying to forecast the future, just trying to hindcast the past?
And the climate establishment wants us to believe that these are anything more than a pathetic joke?
But wait, as they say on TV … there’s more!
Here is the actual Berkeley Earth historical record, compared to the three model runs.
![](https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/3-runs-GDFL-CMIP6-model-plus-berkeley.png?resize=720%2C672&ssl=1)
Figure 2. Three model runs of the NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model, plus the Berkeley Earth historical temperature Jan 1850 to Dec 2023.
Not much else to say about that … except that anyone depending on these climate models to tell us what’s going to happen in the future should know that they can’t even tell us what happened in the past …
My best to all, take a walk, enjoy your lives,
w.
Yeah, you’ve heard it before: When you comment please quote the exact words you are referring to. And if you want to prove me wrong, you might want to read this first.
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