AN UNGOVERNABLE FRANCE
As the largest bloc, the NFP will lay claim to the premiership and the right to form a government. That will be enough to unnerve markets, given its planned massive spending increases financed, in theory, by swingeing tax rises on the wealthy.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the belligerent leader of the far-left La France Insoumise, the biggest of the four parties in the NFP, said there could be no compromise on the left’s programme. But the NFP will fall well short of a governing majority. Suggestions on Sunday that it could implement its plans by decree smack of election night exuberance.
Macron’s camp is hoping that the left will eventually fragment under the strain of Melenchon’s intransigence and that it could then try to assemble some sort of coalition with the socialists, greens and other moderates. This could take weeks if not months.
Even if the numbers add up, and it looks a stretch, the centre-left are likely to ask a high price – such as reversing Macron’s rise in the pension age from 62 to 64 or reimposing a wealth tax on financial assets – and will want the government under their control.
If there is no path to a majority, Macron may have to install a caretaker premier with a minimal mandate until fresh elections can be called in one-year’s time. With three more or less evenly sized political blocs unwilling to work with each other, France seems ungovernable.
Throughout the forthcoming turmoil we can expect Le Pen and her number two Jordan Bardella to present themselves as the only alternative offering order and stability. Sunday’s defeat may then only look like a temporary setback.
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