BIRMINGHAM: Since a surprise attack in Russia’s Kursk region on Aug 6, Ukraine has taken control of as much as 1,000 sq km of Russian territory. It has destroyed a lot of equipment, taken prisoners and inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces.
This is an operation of many firsts – and a huge gamble for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
It is the first significant offensive Ukraine has launched since the much-anticipated but ultimately unsuccessful counter-offensive a year ago. It is the first time that regular Ukrainian troops have mounted a major operation inside the Russian Federation.
If one does not count the Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969, it is also the first time foreign troops have entered Russia since the German invasion of 1941.
After a long period of gradual, if costly, advances along the 1,000km-long front line inside Ukraine, it is the first major military challenge the Kremlin has encountered since the Ukrainian summer offensive of 2022.
As such, and especially if it is not swiftly contained, it is also the first major challenge to the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin, since the abortive insurgency by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner group in June 2023.
BARGAINING WITH RUSSIAN LAND IN FUTURE PEACE TALKS
But it is also the first operation in which it is not clear what the Ukrainian objectives are.
Mr Zelenskyy is reported to have likened his country’s successes to a growing “exchange fund” – most likely in terms of territory and prisoners of war. The latter may benefit Ukraine’s ability to recruit and retain soldiers. After all, not abandoning captured soldiers and bringing them home is important for the government’s legitimacy.
However, territory – especially Russian territory – is critical for Ukraine’s position in any future negotiations with Russia.
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