Planet on course for 2.7C rise in temperature, report warns
As negotiators get down to business this morning my colleague Ajit Niranjan has a sobering report which reveals that current policies would lead to a disastrous 2.7C of warming. This would cause a level of disruption that many scientists say will put human civilisation at risk. It adds that the expected level of global heating by the end of the century has not changed since 2021, with “minimal progress” made this year, according to the Climate Action Tracker project.
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Macron, Mottley and Ruto make a powerful case in a recent article in Project Syndicate:
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“One key piece of the international financial architecture is still underused [to raise climate finance]: ‘solidarity levies’. Such policies are necessary to ensure that everyone contributes their fair share to what should be a global effort. There are swaths of the economy which are largely under-taxed yet polluting the planet. This applies to maritime shipping, aviation, and, of course, the fossil-fuel industry, which enjoys low effective tax rates due to government subsidies (totaling an estimated $7 trillion in 2022, according to the IMF).
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“A global levy of 0.1% on stock and bond trades could raise up to $418bn per year. A levy on shipping of $100 per ton of carbon dioxide could raise $80bn per year. A levy on fossil-fuel extraction of $5 per ton of CO2 could raise $210bn per year. Even a partial redistribution through solidarity levies would guarantee a large source of predictable climate finance
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“These levies already exist. More than 30 countries currently implement a financial transaction tax, and at least 21 have a levy on airplane tickets. Moreover, even small-scale initiatives such as the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds demonstrate the feasibility of an international redistribution mechanism
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“In early 2025, we [the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force] will publicly launch a handful of concrete proposals with rigorous impact assessments. These will be scalable – raising at least $100 billion per year.
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“In the case of global solidarity levies, the only innovation required is ambitious leadership across a sufficient base of countries. Let the tenth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement next year be remembered as the moment when we came together as a global community to implement solidarity levies, providing the financial tools necessary to meet the great challenge of our time.
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Friederike Roder, at Global Citizen, said: “These levies offer the most effective means of achieving a step change in grant financing in the short term and providing support to the poorest and most indebted countries. The new report from the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force demonstrates not only the technical feasibility of a number of levies and their revenue potential but also the political momentum behind them.”
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The all-important text on the climate finance goal was described on Thursday as “a workable basis for discussion for the first time in the three years of the technical process,” by Yalchin Rafiyev, Cop29’s lead negotiator and Azerbaijan’s deputy minister of foreign affairs. That is not what many countries think, with some describing it as the opposite, as the Guardian pointed out.
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The task of producing an acceptable text to take in the second week of Cop29, when the hardball high-level negotiating takes place, is critical to delivering the funding desperately needed by developing nations to cope with the worsening impacts of global heating. Key disagreements are on the total finance number and how much is from public money, loans and private finance.
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“Of course, there are some diverging views and there are some points that still need to find a convergence zone,” Rafiyev said “With some revisions and some streamlining this text should be a starting point. The text currently on the table is the product of three years of hard work in an inclusive process. There is no alternative to this text and everybody understands that.”
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Rafiyev was also asked about Argentina’s delegation being withdrawn from Cop29 by its far-right President Javier Milei, who has called climate change a “socialist lie”. He said this was a “bilateral matter” between the UN and Argentina and would not comment further.
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Rafiyev faced another question about France’s top French climate official Agnès Pannier-Runacher cancelling her attendance at Cop29. This happened after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev accused France of “brutally” suppressing climate change concerns in its Pacific island territories and claiming the “regime of President Macron” had killed citizens protesting legitimately in New Caledonia.
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France has supported Armenia in its conflict against Azerbaijan, but countries hosting Cops are expected to put aside such bilateral disagreements in order to act as neutral brokers in the negotiations. “We have opened our doors to everybody and our doors are still open,” said the apparently unflappable Rafiyev.
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call on world leaders and big oil to “Defund genocide” during Cop29 in Baku”,”caption”:”Activists call on world leaders and big oil to “Defund genocide” during Cop29 in Baku”,”credit”:”Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Climate activist groups at Cop29 are linking the war in Gaza to the climate crisis – arguing that western governments and big oil are driving both, with dire consequences for humanity.
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Asad Rehman, executive director of War on Want which is part of the demand climate justice coalition, told a panel in Baku: “We stand at a crossroads with the very future of humanity at stake, facing a life or death struggle for humanity: on the one side the right of everyone to live with dignity or a world of walls and fences and sacrificed people,” he said.
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climate summit in BakuActivists hold a protest calling on developed nations to provide financing to fight climate change at the Olympic Stadium housing the United Nations climate change conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. 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“Make polluters pay” is the banner festooned across the terraces of the huge football stadium that is at the heart of the Cop29 conference on Thursday. Its target is rich nations, whose enormous emissions now and in the past have created the climate crisis.
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Instead of football chants, the campaigners are calling for the trillions of dollars of climate finance needed by developing countries to curb the devastating impacts they did little to cause.
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“We are calling to all developed countries to take responsibility,” says Sandra Guzman, from Mexico and at the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean, who is at her 16th Cop. “They have to pay up for their historical responsibilities.”
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Agreeing a new figure for the annual climate finance, called the “new collective quantified goal” is the key task of Cop29 and negotiations will be fierce between the rich nations with responsibility to pay and the poor ones needing the money. “This NCQG is a matter of survival, because this is the only goal on climate finance that we will get,” said Guzman.
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She says the money needs to be grants, not loans. Private sector finance might be able to deliver renewable energy projects but she says it cannot provide the infrastructure that is needed to protect communities from heatwaves, floods and storms: “You cannot make profit out of adaptation.”
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Another problem is that there is no agreed definition of climate finance, meaning that what exactly makes up the existing $100bn a year flow is opaque. Cop29 may or may not agree a definition, but at the very least it has to exclude some projects, she says: “Some countries are saying that gas investments are climate finance, because they have less emissions than coal. But gas is still a fossil fuel.”
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As negotiators get down to business this morning my colleague Ajit Niranjan has a sobering report which reveals that current policies would lead to a disastrous 2.7C of warming. This would cause a level of disruption that many scientists say will put human civilisation at risk. It adds that the expected level of global heating by the end of the century has not changed since 2021, with “minimal progress” made this year, according to the Climate Action Tracker project.
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Day 4 of Cop promises to be quieter, with world leaders flying home after their Tuesday and Wednesday speeches. Events today will focus on climate finance — the key issue for the negotiations.
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Parties are working to broker a deal ensuring developing countries receive funding to help cope with climate disasters and phase out fossil fuels. It’s urgent, since a 2009 agreement to contribute $100 billion annually — which was only fulfilled in 2022 — expires this year.
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How much money negotiators should commit depends on who you ask. The need could easily top $2tn each year; developing countries are asking for a minimum of $1.3tn.
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The talks have zeroed in on a goal of at least $1 trillion a year — about 1% of the global economy — by 2035. That figure comes from a 2022 paper from the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance (IHLEG), a group of leading economists that has advised UN climate negotiations since 2021.
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The IHLEG will release an update to that report later this morning. Stay tuned, as my colleague Fiona Harvey will have the scoop.
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Finance negotiations in Cop29 are fraught, and tensions are generally high. France’s ecology minister yesterday canceled her flight to Baku after Azerbaijan’s president railed against France for its colonial “crimes” in its overseas territories. Argentina’s president Javier Milei ordered his team home from the negotiations. And concerns about Donald Trump’s pledge to exit the Paris climate agreement are rampant.
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Yesterday, Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley — a climate justice champion and a bit of a UN climate talks celebrity — invited Donald Trump to a face-to-face meeting to seek “common ground” on the climate crisis.
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“Let us find a common purpose in saving the planet and saving livelihoods,” she told my colleague Fiona Harvey. “We are human beings and we have the capacity to meet face-to-face, in spite of our differences. We want humanity to survive.”
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Key events
The powerful case for solidarity levies
Damian Carrington
Among the ways of raising money to provide the $1tn in climate finance, so-called “solidarity levies” are perhaps the most interesting – technically simple, but able to raise very large sums. They include taxes on fossil fuels, flights, shipping and financial transactions. They also have serious backers, with French president Emmanuel Macron, Barbadian prime minster Mia Amor Mottley and Kenyan president William Ruto the prime movers.
Macron, Mottley and Ruto make a powerful case in a recent article in Project Syndicate:
“One key piece of the international financial architecture is still underused [to raise climate finance]: ‘solidarity levies’. Such policies are necessary to ensure that everyone contributes their fair share to what should be a global effort. There are swaths of the economy which are largely under-taxed yet polluting the planet. This applies to maritime shipping, aviation, and, of course, the fossil-fuel industry, which enjoys low effective tax rates due to government subsidies (totaling an estimated $7 trillion in 2022, according to the IMF).
“A global levy of 0.1% on stock and bond trades could raise up to $418bn per year. A levy on shipping of $100 per ton of carbon dioxide could raise $80bn per year. A levy on fossil-fuel extraction of $5 per ton of CO2 could raise $210bn per year. Even a partial redistribution through solidarity levies would guarantee a large source of predictable climate finance
“These levies already exist. More than 30 countries currently implement a financial transaction tax, and at least 21 have a levy on airplane tickets. Moreover, even small-scale initiatives such as the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds demonstrate the feasibility of an international redistribution mechanism
“In early 2025, we [the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force] will publicly launch a handful of concrete proposals with rigorous impact assessments. These will be scalable – raising at least $100 billion per year.
“In the case of global solidarity levies, the only innovation required is ambitious leadership across a sufficient base of countries. Let the tenth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement next year be remembered as the moment when we came together as a global community to implement solidarity levies, providing the financial tools necessary to meet the great challenge of our time.
Friederike Roder, at Global Citizen, said: “These levies offer the most effective means of achieving a step change in grant financing in the short term and providing support to the poorest and most indebted countries. The new report from the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force demonstrates not only the technical feasibility of a number of levies and their revenue potential but also the political momentum behind them.”
Wild excitement at the news that the world famous footballer Ronaldinho has been seen at Cop29. In fact it looks as if he may have been there yesterday.
Baku TV reported his exciting visit, as he descended from his private jet and shook lots of peoples’ hands. Apparently this is NOT his first visit to Azerbaijan. He has been before, and was in discussions about setting up his own sports academy there. Yes, it’s Cop29 live for all your hottest sports news and gossip.
Ajit Niranjan
Meanwhile further west, members of the European Parliament have voted to postpone a landmark deforestation law this afternoon, even as its negotiators at Cop29 push for stronger action to stop the planet from heating.
The shift is set to delay stricter rules on deforestation that could help save trees around the world, giving bis businesses until the end of 2025 and small businesses until July 2026 to comply with the rules.
Climate groups reacted with anger to the vote. Global Witness, which estimates the delayed adoption could deforest an area more than fourteen times the size of Paris, said the European Parliament had “taken a chainsaw” to the deforestation law. Greenpeace said the move was “absolutely shameful”. WWF took aim at the European People’s Party, the centre-right grouping that had previously supported the law, for choosing “political posturing over climate action.”
The law aims to fight climate breakdown and the death of nature by stopping deforestation related to the EU’s consumption of food and other goods. It covers products such as beef, cocoa, coffee, palm oil and paper.
Campaigners also criticised the introduction of a new category of countries posing “no risk” on deforestation, which the Parliament says will face “significantly less stringent” rules. They fear the loophole could result in high-risk countries exporting their products via low-risk countries, bringing products produced through the felling or burning of forests into the hands of consumers in Europe.
Anke Schulmeister-Oldenhove, from the European branch of WWF, said: “Today’s decision also undermines voters’ trust in EU policy-making as a whole, and sends a shameful signal on the climate agenda of the new European Parliament during the ongoing climate negotiations in Baku.”
The European Parliament said the delay would help operators around the world implement the law smoothly, and without undermining its objectives. Global Witness, Greenpeace and WWF have called on the European Commission to withdraw the proposal altogether.
China is going through the longest summer on record, according to China Daily.
“As of Wednesday, Guangzhou had broken a three-decade heat record, having experienced 235 summer days as measured by temperature. The city experienced a total of 234 hot days in 1994, it said.
Guangzhou, which entered its warm temperature period on March 23, usually starts cooling around Nov 9. Based on current temperatures, the province still does not have autumn conditions, and so summer this year will continue, meteorologists said.
Meanwhile typhoons continue to roam through the region.
Deepening concern and division over the climate finance goal
Damian Carrington
The all-important text on the climate finance goal was described on Thursday as “a workable basis for discussion for the first time in the three years of the technical process,” by Yalchin Rafiyev, Cop29’s lead negotiator and Azerbaijan’s deputy minister of foreign affairs. That is not what many countries think, with some describing it as the opposite, as the Guardian pointed out.
The task of producing an acceptable text to take in the second week of Cop29, when the hardball high-level negotiating takes place, is critical to delivering the funding desperately needed by developing nations to cope with the worsening impacts of global heating. Key disagreements are on the total finance number and how much is from public money, loans and private finance.
“Of course, there are some diverging views and there are some points that still need to find a convergence zone,” Rafiyev said “With some revisions and some streamlining this text should be a starting point. The text currently on the table is the product of three years of hard work in an inclusive process. There is no alternative to this text and everybody understands that.”
Rafiyev was also asked about Argentina’s delegation being withdrawn from Cop29 by its far-right President Javier Milei, who has called climate change a “socialist lie”. He said this was a “bilateral matter” between the UN and Argentina and would not comment further.
Rafiyev faced another question about France’s top French climate official Agnès Pannier-Runacher cancelling her attendance at Cop29. This happened after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev accused France of “brutally” suppressing climate change concerns in its Pacific island territories and claiming the “regime of President Macron” had killed citizens protesting legitimately in New Caledonia.
France has supported Armenia in its conflict against Azerbaijan, but countries hosting Cops are expected to put aside such bilateral disagreements in order to act as neutral brokers in the negotiations. “We have opened our doors to everybody and our doors are still open,” said the apparently unflappable Rafiyev.
A new report from Global Witness has found that 880,000 people in COP29 host Azerbaijan live within 5km of a gas flaring site.
This means that more than one in every 12 Azeri is exposed to powerful pollutants from flaring that can lead to serious medical problems, including asthma, premature birth, heart failure, cancer and strokes.
In 2023, the WHO attributed more than one in five deaths from heart disease and stroke in Azerbaijan to air pollution.
Read the full report here.
Many countries are offering treats at their Cop29 pavilions, writes our colleague Dharna Noor: the UK’s has a coffee bar; Georgia’s last night served wine samples. But no pavilion’s offerings can top the Russian Federation’s. There, passerbys can pick up a coloring book produced by the Russian majority state-owned gas company — yes, really. Its cover deems it full of “ecological coloring for children,” and it’s full of tips on how to promote environmental sustainability, including uplifting the “safety and environmental friendiness of fuel stations.”
Other pages encourage children to “plant trees and flowers” and or urges them not to “throw away batteries and lightbulbs, recycle them.” Thank you for the advice, dear multinational gas producer. (And a hat tip to climate diplomacy tracker extraordinaire Ed King for the tip!)
Gazprom isn’t the only gas company that has advertised to children via coloring books. Here’s a US instance from 2011: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/jul/14/gas-fracking-children-colouring-book
Hallo, this is Bibi van der Zee, taking over the liveblog from my esteemed colleague Matthew Taylor for the next few hours at Cop29. Please send your thoughts and suggestions my way, at bibi.vanderzee@theguardian.com.
Ajit Niranjan
Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan has called China’s climate finance contributions in recent years “an important mini-step.”
Repeating calls from rich countries to widen the pool of contributors, Morgan called for a new approach to climate finance. She pointed to a statement from China’s vice-premier, Ding Xuexiang, who told world leaders on Tuesday that China has stumped up RMB 177 billion ($24.5 billion) to support other country’s climate efforts since 2016. The sum works out at about $3 billion per year.
“This is an important mini-step,” said Morgan. “But it remains open exactly which flows of money are counted here – and the quality of the financing is at the moment unclear.”
She added: “It shows China can do a lot, and is already doing something. But only that which is transparent can be recognised.”
Poor countries need $1 trillion a year in climate finance by 2030, five years earlier than rich countries are likely to agree to at UN climate talks. That was the finding of a study published this morning that my colleague Fiona Harvey has broken down for you here.
At a previous Cop in 2009, rich countries made and then broke a promise to mobilise a tenth of that amount by 2020, meeting the target for the first year in 2022. They have pushed back against efforts to contribute more money unless rich oil countries in the Middle East and China also chip in.
Protesters link war in Gaza to climate crisis
Climate activist groups at Cop29 are linking the war in Gaza to the climate crisis – arguing that western governments and big oil are driving both, with dire consequences for humanity.
Asad Rehman, executive director of War on Want which is part of the demand climate justice coalition, told a panel in Baku: “We stand at a crossroads with the very future of humanity at stake, facing a life or death struggle for humanity: on the one side the right of everyone to live with dignity or a world of walls and fences and sacrificed people,” he said.
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