Huge area of open water on Hudson Bay created by wind, not ice melt, NSIDC experts confirm – Watts Up With That?

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

Sea ice experts at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center just confirmed my suspicion that the huge area of open water in eastern Hudson Bay during May this year was caused by winds, not ice melt. In other words, it’s a rare occurrence but not a sign of extra-early sea ice melt caused by global warming.

Money quote: “Unusual strong and persistent winds from the east caused the low extent.”

May sea ice Hudson Bay

From the NSIDC report (June 4), a NASA image of Hudson Bay taken 26 May 2024:

The graph below is from the same report, showing the “unprecedented” (since 1979 only) nature of this wind-driven event:

The Canadian Ice Service shows this in regional context for the first week of June in their stage of development chart (i.e. ice thickness, where medium green is 70-120 cm thick, dark green 120-200 cm or more):

Even pessimistic polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher admitted last week that Western Hudson Bay polar bears are largely unaffected by the open water on the bay since they are concentrated in the western half of the bay. The bears do this most years in late spring, in fact, even when there is more ice available. Derocher’s tracking maps for 31 May 2024 and 1 June 2019 are below:

Even by today, 9 June, there is still ice in the western half of James Bay and Hudson Bay:

May Arctic sea ice

Overall, however, the NSIDC report also showed that sea ice for May was about what it has been since 2004 (with some variation), with the average this year at 12.78 mkm2:

Sea ice extent at 1 June 2024 shown below:

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