As of early this morning, it appears that Ronde and Caille islands in Grenada are most likely to see the eye pass overhead, with a slightly lesser impact possible to the main island of Grenada. That said, there’s a chance the main island winds up with a more significant blow, since Beryl has habitually trended a bit south of forecasts.
It’s still too early to say which land mass is next in line to be struck by Beryl after the Lesser Antilles, but Jamaica, Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula in particular are all at risk. The odds of Beryl entering the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane are low, but not zero, though that possibility wouldn’t arise until next weekend. The risk to the United States is very low.
Later this week, a new tropical storm may form that could follow a similar path as Beryl, impacting the same islands. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to remain a busy one. A building La Niña weather pattern will favor conditions that will make it easier for tropical storms and hurricanes to form. Wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, will also be reduced, which means storms will have an easier time developing. That’s why this season looks to be exceptionally active or even hyperactive.
These areas will be hardest hit today
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada and Tobago, while tropical storm warnings cover Trinidad and Martinique.
Beryl was just hours from impacting the Windward Islands. It’s worth noting, however, that hurricane-force winds — defined as sustained winds over 74 mph — only extend outward up to 35 miles from Beryl’s center. That means only one or two islands will probably be most heavily impacted.
In addition to “potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds,” the National Hurricane Center is warning of “a life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves.”
Moreover, a 5- to 9-foot storm surge is possible in localized areas where onshore eyewall winds pile water against the coast.
Key things to know about where Beryl is now
As of 8 a.m. Monday, Beryl was once again a Category 4 hurricane, with winds near 130 mph. It was located 70 miles east of Granada, and moving west-northwest at 20 mph.
It had briefly weakened to a Category 3 after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. The eyewall is the ring of thunderstorms containing extreme winds that surrounds the calm eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the eyewall withers and erodes as a new, larger eyewall forms around it. That spreads the radius of maximum winds but slightly reduces wind speeds. (Think of a spinning ice skater extending their arms — they trace larger circles but spin slower.)
How this storm became a monster
Beryl took advantage of near record-warm water temperatures in the mid 80s. Sea surface temperatures are running 3 or 4 degrees above average, which to some extent can be linked to human-caused climate change. The waters are more reminiscent of August than late June or early July.
Beryl intensified from a tropical depression to a Category 4 in just 48 hours, something that is unprecedented for June and rare year-round. It also was able to develop due to a localized minimum in wind shear, meaning there would be nothing to tear it apart.
Furthermore, Beryl was in a favorable position near a clockwise-spinning high to the northeast and a counterclockwise-spinning low to the northwest. In between, a narrow strip of air was moving away from Beryl. That helped evacuate “outflow,” or spent exhaust air from the high altitudes over Beryl. In turn, more warm, moist air was able to enter the storm from below. (Imagine placing a fan above a chimney; the more air you blow out the top, the more air can be sucked in the bottom to fan the flames.)
What’s next for Beryl and other areas to watch
Beryl may spend Monday into early Tuesday fluctuating between Category 3 and 4 strength in the eastern Caribbean. After that, it will continue moving west while gradually weakening.
Jamaica could be fringed by the storm Wednesday. Then it will probably hit Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula south of Cancún on Thursday night or early Friday.
Meanwhile, a new disturbance called Invest 96L is located midway between South America and Africa in the middle of the Atlantic’s Main Development Region. The Hurricane Center estimates it has 70 percent odds of eventual development. It could take a similar path to Beryl, impacting the same beleaguered islands as a named storm by late this week.
Meanwhile, another tropical storm — Chris — came together last-minute in the Bay of Campeche overnight, bringing breezy winds and heavy rainfall as it made landfall in Mexico around 4 a.m. Eastern time. The states of Guanajuato, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi were expected to see widespread rain totals of 4. to 8 inches, with a few locales receiving up to 10 inches.
