Veteran Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga clambered on to the stage to address the ebullient crowd of 20,000 supporters backing his latest run for the presidency.
“Kenyans have four big enemies . . . diseases, stupidity, poverty and corruption,” he told those gathered in the central city of Kiambu to cheer on the 77-year-old’s fifth attempt to lead east Africa’s largest economy. The country’s problems will be solved “if we eliminate the last enemy of corruption”, he said to cheers.
“I like Baba because of his persistence: he’s a fighter, a go-getter,” said Peninah Mwithiga, a local singer who was among them, using a Swahili word for “father” to describe the veteran politician.
Odinga’s chance of victory has been boosted by an endorsement from the outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, who is stepping down after two terms. The pair were adversaries before they struck a deal four year ago and Kenyatta switched to back his longtime enemy. It means Odinga, a political prisoner in the 1980s, has become the establishment candidate after decades in opposition.
Tuesday’s presidential election is expected to go down to the wire, with Odinga and the other main candidate, vice-president William Ruto, neck and neck in the polls. Ruto, 55, casts himself as the political outsider despite the fact he has been the current administration’s deputy leader for two terms.
As 22mn Kenyans head to the polls, they do so in the midst of an economic downturn as the country struggles with inflation that was at a five-year high of 8.3 per cent in July, which has affected food prices in particular, and soaring public debt. The price rises, partly fuelled by the war in Ukraine, have deepened economic problems caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
In addition to fighting corruption, Odinga’s campaign pledges include cash transfers for the poor and negotiating a debt restructuring. Kenya has in recent years pursued big infrastructure projects while racking up large amounts of debt, putting the country in a “high risk of distress”, according to the IMF.
Ruto, a one-time chicken salesman who became one of Kenya’s richest men, has sought to align himself with Kenyans struggling with a cost of living crisis. He has presented himself through a rags-to-riches story, contrasting his supposedly humble pedigree with those of Odinga and Kenyatta. Both their fathers were heroes of Kenya’s independence from Britain in 1963.
“I’ve pushed this campaign to be about trickle down versus bottom up,” Ruto said in an interview. “We must sort out the cost of living, we must sort out unemployment, we must deal with our debt situation.”
His backers say the self-made teetotaller and trained botanist is the leader to take Kenya forward. Ruto has pledged to invest Ks500bn ($4.2bn) over five years, mainly in smallholding agriculture. Farmers make up more than 40 per cent of the country’s population.
Ruto delivered voters to the president for many years on the understanding he would one day succeed him — before Kenyatta threw his weight behind Odinga. For Ruto supporters, Odinga’s association with the current president is a drawback.
“Uhuru Kenyatta has the worst legacy Kenya has ever had,” said Protus Karani, a student attending a Ruto campaign event. “We’re looking for a new government and Odinga represents the old one,” he added, as crowds of supporters hailed Ruto as “the hustler!”
But many in Kenya believe Odinga is likely to take victory thanks to having the backing of Kenyatta, whom he refers to as his “brother” at rallies.
Both candidates have picked members of the dominant Kikuyu ethnic group as running mates. Odinga, who is a Luo, chose Martha Karua, an anti-corruption judge, and Ruto, who is a Kalenjin, went for Rigathi Gachagua, an MP who has been dogged by corruption allegations he denies.
An Ipsos survey last week put Odinga on 47 per cent and Ruto on 41 per cent. George Wajackoyah, who is campaigning to turn Kenya into an exporter of, among other things, marijuana, trails a distant third at 3 per cent.
To win outright, a candidate must secure more than half the overall votes as well as a minimum 25 per cent of the votes in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties. The electoral commission has up to seven days to declare a winner or call for a run-off. Voters will also elect members of parliament and county governors next week.
Analysts and diplomats fear that any doubts over the results could trigger unrest after post-election violence marred polls in 2007 and 2017, killing 1,200 and 100 respectively. Kenyatta and Ruto were both investigated by the International Criminal Court for the 2007 violence, although the charges were later dropped.
“The accusations that were levelled against me . . . were false,” Ruto said. Odinga refused to participate in a rerun of the 2017 poll and swore himself president in a mock inauguration.
Last week, Kenya’s electoral commissioner Justus Nyang’aya assured voters the polls “cannot be rigged” after concerns were expressed about biometric voter registration, electronic voter identification and the transparency of results. US secretary of state Antony Blinken called for “a peaceful and transparent democratic process”.
Most analysts think any election violence would be limited this time, with leading contenders refraining from spurring unrest.
About 66 per cent of respondents to a survey last week by Kenyan pollster TIFA said they had no concerns about post-election violence.
Odinga believes his time may have finally come.
“I’ve won before, and I was never declared a winner,” he said in an interview, referring to the occasions when he believes he was cheated out of victory. “I’m certain that if it’s done fairly, there’s no way that I can lose this election.”
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