Sentiment around the interest rate decision
The rate hold was largely anticipated by markets and economists. Many hoped it to be the central bank’s last hold before pivoting to a cutting cycle (lowering the rate, finally). Optimism around this has grown following February’s inflation report, in which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 2.8%, which is within one percentage point of the BoC’s 2% target.
However, the BoC itself seems less enthusiastic about this prospect.
The tone and language used in the announcement by the BoC’s Governing Council (the team of economists setting the direction for Canadian interest rates) clearly stated that inflation risks remain too high for comfort.
Why is the BoC holding its rate?
This is due to steep shelter and mortgage interest costs right now, which are the largest contributor to the CPI. However, the council did note that the core inflation metrics the BoC monitors (referred to as the median and trim) have improved slightly to 3%, with the three-month average moving lower. This is notable, and likely the clearest signal the central bank may be preparing to cut rates—but the BoC needs to see more of this trend before it’ll make a downward move.
Is inflation still too high in Canada?
“Based on the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet,” reads the BoC’s announcement. “While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months. The Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.”
The BoC also updated its inflation forecast, expecting it to remain at 3% during the first half of 2024, fall below 2.5% in the last six months of the year, and finally dip under the 2% target in 2025.
As this marks the BoC’s sixth consecutive hold, there hasn’t been a change to the prime rate since July 2023. That means the cost of borrowing has sat at a two-decade high for the last nine months—and that certainly has implications for all Canadians. Here’s how you may be impacted, whether you’re shopping for a mortgage, saving a nest egg, or making an investment decision.
What the BoC’s rate hold means if you’re a mortgage borrower
First and foremost: If you’re a variable mortgage holder, you are the most directly impacted by the BoC’s rate direction out of everyone on this list. This is because the pricing for variable products is based on a “prime plus or minus” method. For example, if your variable rate is “prime minus 0.50%,” your variable rate today would be 6.7% (7.2% – 0.50%).
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