The latest on the coronavirus outbreak for Feb. 18

The comments by Dr. Theresa Tam echo ones made earlier this week by World Health Organization officials, who expressed concern that some Western jurisdictions are dropping too many mitigation measures without clear evidence that Omicron subvariants or another variant altogether could lead to case spikes.

Tam presented models based on looser restrictions. The data showed that if restrictions are eased moderately, there could be a limited resurgence of daily cases with a potential for a slight increase of hospitalizations in the spring. With a more substantial easing of measures, Tam said, there could be a large resurgence of daily cases, potentially exceeding prior peaks.

It will be worth considering for officials in Canada’s provinces, including the largest.

Ontario Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said Thursday the province is reviewing directives for the need for vaccination policies across various sectors, including colleges, universities and health-care settings, and that his goal is to lift them by the start of the next month.

As for mask requirements, Moore said he will be monitoring key indicators as the province moves to lift further restrictions on March 1, and will review masking requirements about two weeks after that. Any change to the masking mandate will first likely see the province recommend rather than require them.

As of Thursday, restaurants, gyms and cinemas that must screen patrons for vaccination against COVID-19 have no limits on capacity. Other indoor spaces that are using the proof-of-vaccination system are also no longer subject to capacity limits, while sports arenas and theatres can open to half capacity.

“We were worried about a rebound and that’s why we’ve been watching the data so closely and we’ve been opening in a phased manner … [but] I don’t anticipate a significant rebound in cases,” said Moore.

A day after Moore told CBC News that key metrics including wastewater data and the rate of hospitalizations are showing a state of “profound decline” in Ontario, the public got a sense of what he was talking about. (See the graph further down this newsletter for the Ontario trend.)

Ontario reported 1,281 COVID-19 hospitalizations on Friday. That’s a net decrease of 61 patients from the previous day’s report and a significant drop from the 1,829 counted at the same time last week.

There are 352 people in intensive care units, compared to 435 at the same time last week. Roughly 81 per cent of the current total were persons admitted to intensive care specifically for the virus, while the rest were admitted for other reasons.

Like all the provinces with populations of more than one million save British Columbia, Ontario has chosen to phase out its vaccine passport systems. As of March 1, they will no longer be mandatory in public settings, though businesses are allowed to

About 85 per cent of Ontarians aged five and older have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine and nearly 90 per cent have at least one. Nearly 46 per cent are fully vaccinated with a third dose, and on Friday the provincial vaccine booking portal opened at 8 a.m. for those aged 12-17 who had their second shot six months ago.

For Tam, sustained vaccination is what could prevent any spring surprises. She said that even if cases grow in Canada in the spring, per the modelling, hospitalization levels could be manageable, given the country’s vaccination level.

From CBC News

The defence and criticism of using the Emergencies Act | At Issue

The At Issue panel breaks down the parliamentary debate over implementing the Emergencies Act, how the government is defending it and the criticism from opposition parties. 11:14

Travel agencies flooded with requests after Ottawa says it will drop pre-arrival PCR test for travellers 

Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos announced Tuesday that travellers will still be required to take a pre-arrival test for COVID-19, but they can instead opt for an authorized rapid antigen test taken no more than one day before their scheduled flight or arrival at the land border.

Also announced at that time: starting Feb. 28, unvaccinated children under the age of 12 entering Canada with fully vaccinated parents will no longer have to avoid schools, daycare or other crowded settings for 14 days.

Several travel agents who spoke to CBC News say they’re having trouble keeping up with a swell of demand now that travel rules are changing.

Shalene Dudley, owner of Latitude Concierge Travels based in Burlington, Ont., said her “email has blown up” with people wanting to travel for spring break within the last 24 hours.

Both Dudley and Katherine Velan, a travel agent with Direct Travel in Montreal, believe the current travel rules — which require travellers entering Canada to show proof of a negative molecular test taken within 72 hours of their departing flight or planned arrival at the land border — have been a huge deterrent to Canadians wanting to travel.

“Of all the measures, that one’s been the bane of our existence as travel agents,” said Velan.

As reported in the past months by CBC News, PCR tests have ranged in price from $150 to $300. It can also be difficult to get test results within the specified 72 hours, as they typically must be processed in a lab. Supplies were often not plentiful, as well.

The announcement by Duclos appears to build off momentum that had started as Canadians consider March Break or warm-weather travel.

Bookings to sun destinations via Tripcentral.ca topped 50 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, with an uptick over the weekend as word spread of a possible wind-down of testing requirements, said president Richard Vanderlubbe.

Vanderlubbe said calls were coming in so fast he was struggling to hire enough agents to handle them after cutting nearly 60 per cent of his 160 employees and shuttering all 26 office locations in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

Martin Taller, co-ordinator of the tourism and travel program at Algonquin College in Ottawa, said the industry is usually “one of the first to feel the downturn, but the first to feel the upturn.” Taller is hoping there will soon be “an influx of new folks coming back into the industry and getting licensed to sell travel.”

Read the full story

World roundup: Hong Kong and Japan have surges, vaccine production capacity to be bolstered in Africa 

In Hong Kong, more than 10,000 new infections were reported on Thursday and Friday. Daily new coronavirus cases only exceeded 2,000 for the first time on Monday.

Health authorities said Thursday that hospitals were at 90 per cent capacity and that isolation facilities were full. The city is looking into converting hotels and even unoccupied public housing into quarantine areas. To relieve some pressure on hospitals, officials now say some patients with mild symptoms will be able to leave hospitals after just seven days — half the current requirement — if they test negative and are not living with any high-risk individuals.

But overall, Hong Kong shows no sign of backing away from matching mainland China’s stringent “zero-COVID” policies even as the rest of the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Hong Kong has seen banks close branches and movie theatres have shut down. A ban on onsite dining after 6 p.m., imposed last month, is depriving restaurants of critical dinner and banquet revenues.

“The biggest risk of Hong Kong in 2022 is that it may be entering the path of basically, if not recession, at least a downward drag in economic growth again while the world begins to normalize,” said Natixis senior economist Gary Ng.

In Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia were selected as the first African countries selected to receive the technology necessary to produce mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.

The decision was announced Friday at a summit meeting of European Union and African Union countries in Brussels. The six countries have been chosen to build vaccine production factories as part of a bid the World Health Organization launched last year to replicate what are believed to be the most effective licensed shots against COVID-19.

Africa produces just one per cent of coronavirus vaccines. According to WHO figures, only 11 per cent of the population in Africa is fully vaccinated, compared with the global average of about 50 per cent.

Earlier this year, the Cape Town company attempting to replicate Moderna Inc.’s COVID-19 shot said it had successfully made a candidate vaccine that will soon start laboratory testing. Both Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, makers of the two authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, have declined to share their vaccine recipe or technological know-how with WHO and its partners.

“The fastest way to start vaccine production in African countries and other regions with limited vaccine production is still through full and transparent transfer of vaccine know-how of already-approved mRNA technologies to able companies,” said Kate Stegeman, advocacy co-ordinator with Doctors Without Borders.

Stegeman pointed to research showing that there are more than 100 manufacturers in Asia, Africa and Latin America that could make the vaccines.

In Japan, the government will let limits on mobility and commerce lapse on Sunday in five prefectures where the virus appears to have peaked, but extend curbs until March 6 in 17 more areas where infections are still relatively high.

New deaths rose to a record 271 on Thursday, a tally by national broadcaster NHK showed, exceeding 200 for the third straight day. February’s 2,446 deaths make it the second-deadliest month in the two-year pandemic.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pledged to accelerate Japan’s booster program, which has covered just 12 per cent of the population. Kishida said on Thursday that from March the number of people allowed to enter Japan will increase to 5,000 a day from 3,500 now, while quarantine would be shortened or eliminated entirely.

Japan has had among the strictest COVID-19 border controls among wealthy countries, with the country largely closed off to non-residents for almost two years, including many students and foreign workers.

7-day rolling averages of hospitalizations and deaths in Ontario since Dec. 1, 2021

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