President Biden in his prime-time address to the nation this month called America the “arsenal of democracy,” invoking an image Franklin Delano Roosevelt used to inspire a nation just emerging from the Great Depression that it had the industrial base and knowhow to arm countries like Great Britain in their fight against Nazi Germany.
“Just as in World War II, today, patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom,” Mr. Biden said Oct. 19 in remarks from the Oval Office.
But just as in the days before the U.S. entered World War II, countries around the world who are fighting and asking for help from Washington are starting to question whether the Pentagon has the ability to meet their requests.
Already, there’s been some logistical backing and filling, with both conflicts not offering a certain end date for planners.
The Pentagon in January dipped into a little-known munitions stockpile earmarked for Israel to help Ukraine meet its urgent need for artillery ammunition for its war against Russian invaders after nearly a year of bitter fighting.
The stockpile was intended to support future U.S. and allied military needs in the Middle East. Still, Kyiv was expending thousands of artillery rounds a day as its troops clawed back territory from Moscow.
Then came Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants launched a devastating rampage across southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, killing more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians, while taking hundreds of others hostage. Now the Defense Department is scrambling to get the artillery ammunition back to Israel in support of a soon-to-be-expected ground invasion of Gaza.
Defense Department officials on Tuesday said they were confident that increasing its supply of munitions for Israel would not compromise their support for Ukraine — or other potential global flashpoints such as Taiwan.
Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. has been working closely with the nation’s munitions industry to ramp up production of 155mm artillery ammunition.
“We are confident that we have what we need to be able to support [Israel and Ukraine] while at the same time ensuring that our military readiness stays at the threshold that it needs to,” Gen. Ryder told reporters. “We will not sacrifice our own military readiness when it comes to defending the nation.”
Fortunately for U.S. planners, Ukraine and Israel’s munitions requirements aren’t in conflict for the most part. The two allies are fighting very different kinds of wars and have very different needs, military analysts said.
For instance, Israel wants precision-guided munitions and Tamir interceptor missiles for its Iron Dome air defense system, which Ukraine doesn’t have.
“Over time, there will be a growing overlap between what Ukraine needs and what Israel needs, but that will be manageable,” said Brad Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
The Defense Department acknowledges that both Ukraine and Israel require a steady supply of 155mm artillery ammunition. The need is especially dire for Kyiv, whose troops are burning through 6,000 to 8,000 artillery rounds every day, said retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
“The Ukrainians are using a lot of ammunition. I think there’s going to be a crunch point, particularly now that Israel seems to be getting 155mm ammunition,” he said. “I wasn’t expecting [Israel] to need [155mm ammunition] for at least a month. Countries usually have at least two weeks or a month of ammunition on hand.”
The U.S. defense industry has raced to expand its capacity to crank out artillery shells, doubling its production over the past six months to about 28,000 rounds produced every month. It is on pace to reach 57,000 monthly by the spring of 2024 and 100,000 per month by fiscal year 2025, Mr. Bowman said.
“What happens in 2025 is not going to help Israel and Ukraine anytime soon,” Mr. Bowman said. “But because Israel’s demands are not going to be anywhere close to Ukraine’s demands, and because of the increased production capacity, I believe this can be managed.”
Longstanding concerns
Concerns about the depth of the Pentagon’s arsenal and of the ability of America’s defense base to rebuild stressed inventories have been a constant concern for military analysts — long before the latest Israeli-Palestinian clashes.
Maiya Clark, a senior researcher for the Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, wrote in an analysis for this newspaper in February that “the U.S. has fewer munitions than you might think — and that’s a problem.”
She noted that the early months of the Ukraine war after Russia’s February 2022 invasion rapidly drew down key weapons categories for the Pentagon, with U.S. defense contractors not in a position to make up the shortfall.
“The U.S. began sending military aid to Ukraine early last February,” Ms. Clark wrote at the time. “By April, our stocks of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles had been depleted by a third.”
And still in question is what will happen in the north of Israel, where Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters are threatening to launch a major fight if Israel Defense Forces troops move into Gaza.
“Obviously, that would increase Israel’s needs for all kinds of things — including 155mm ammunition,” Mr. Bowman said. “Israel is going to need air defense capacity and precision-guided munitions.”
Washington political dysfunction is also playing a role. Mr. Biden’s speech included an appeal for a $106 billion security aid package for Ukraine, Israel and for the U.S. southern border with Mexico, but Congress has yet to move on the request as House Republicans struggle to elect a speaker and resume legislative business.
Mr. Cancian said he believes the Pentagon is shipping Ukraine all of the 155mm ammunition being produced domestically every month. He said the U.S. military needs about 100,000 artillery rounds per year for training and is likely dipping into its own stock to keep itself supplied.
“If the war [in Israel] goes on for a while, then it’s going to be a different story,” he said. “After a couple of weeks, they’re going to start needing more items — drones, counter-drone technology [and] ground-launched precision munitions.”
Some countries in Europe that weren’t inclined to support Ukraine in their fight against Russia may be willing to provide artillery ammunition to Israel. Mr. Bowman said it could be a reminder to allies to step up as the U.S. juggles support for Israel and Ukraine while simultaneously helping Taiwan fend off encroachment from China and conducting a major military modernization program.
NATO’s most senior military commander warned European officials at the Warsaw Security Forum earlier this month that their ammunition supply is drying up as alliance nations continue to send military aid to Ukraine.
“We’ve started to give away [ammunition] from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe and therefore, the bottom of the barrel is now visible,” said Admiral Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy. “We need the [defense] industry to ramp up production at a much higher tempo and we need large volumes.”
Mr. Cancian said it only made sense to dip into the U.S. ammunition stockpile in Israel to help Ukraine with its existential fight against the Kremlin. The munitions hadn’t been used in years and Kyiv was frantically beating back a massive Russian onslaught.
“I think it was the right thing to do. It’s just that the world didn’t cooperate,” Mr. Cancian said.