Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro on Saturday for UFC 301 with a main event between flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Steve Erceg, plus a co-main event that features Hall of Famer Jose Aldo returning to the UFC to face Jonathan Martinez in the co-main event
Every fight on the card features a Brazilian fighter, the majority of whom are heavy betting favourites.
All 28 fighters scheduled to compete at the event successfully made weight Friday morning, including featherweight William Gomis who looked ill and had to be helped off the scale after bizarrely weighing in three pounds under the allowable amount. Hours later it was reported by French media that Gomis was being pulled from the card.
Complete bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
— Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
— Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino
— Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
— Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito
— Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo
— Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai
— Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose
— Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey
— Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite
— Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel
— Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas
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CAGE LOCKS
The guys snapped their losing streak with a successful parlay hit at last weekend’s Fight Night and are looking to keep things going at UFC 301. Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Martinez vs. Aldo Starts Round 2 -900 (DraftKings)
I expect Aldo to start slow in his octagon return and Martinez tends to be a slow starter as well. These are two tacticians and I expect that the first round will largely be a feeling out process. The inflated betting line seems to agree.
Dan: Michel Pereira to win outright -599 (BetWay)
I think we are witnessing Michel Pereira at the height of his powers. He looked amazing in Anaheim at UFC 299 and that was only a few months ago. Look for him to keep the momentum going in front of a raucous home crowd.
Mike: Vitor Petrino to win outright -550 (Bet365)
Anthony Smith only loses to top-tier competition at 205 pounds and I put Petrino firmly in that category despite him not yet having a signature win over a notable ranked opponent. He’s patient when he needs to be and is a finisher both standing and on the ground. It’s a disrespectful line considering what Smith has done in his career and the current rankings (Smith is No. 10 while Petrino is unranked) although this should be the Brazilian’s fight to lose.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -188 (to win $53.23)
2024 Record: 5-9
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$331.01
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OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Alexandre Pantoja -192 (DraftKings)
Pantoja swelled to a nearly three-to-one favourite at one point, but money has started to come in on Erceg. While Erceg is extremely talented from what we have seen thus far, I feel like it is too much, too soon. Having to fight in the much more seasoned champion’s home country after having fought two months prior during a whirlwind year full of activity is a tall order. Erceg very well could be champion one day, but I don’t believe it is his time just yet. If he proves me wrong, it will be one of the most incredible rises that we have seen in such a short time.
Dan: Dione Barbosa -200 (BetWay)
Both fighters are making their UFC debut, but I think Dionne Barbosa is levels above her opponent. Factor in the noise of the home crowd any time Barbosa lands a significant strike or takedown in this one. That, coupled with a superior grappling game, should be enough to earn the win on scorecards.
Mike: Joanderson Brito -165 (Bodog)
This is a great featured prelim matchup to lead us into the main card and whoever emerges victorious will immediately “enter the chat” so to speak at 145 pounds. As long as his takedown defence holds up, I like Brito’s explosive striking to lead him to victory on home soil.
Aaron’s favourite record: 9-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$88.35
Dan’s favourite record: 8-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$109.39
Mike’s favourite record: 6-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$413.93
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HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Elves Brener +215 (DraftKings)
This line surprises me. Brener has three UFC bouts under his belt and he was a nearly five-to-one underdog in two of them, both of which he won. At 26 years old and training each day with the likes of Charles Oliveira and the rest of the talented Chute Boxe Diego Lima team, we have seen him continue to improve with each fight. Myktybek Oralbai is undoubtedly a great prospect in his own right, but they are roughly the same age and I think that Brener has fought the higher level of competition recently. I believe that this line is far too wide.
Dan: Steve Erceg +160 (Caesars)
Disclaimer: I don’t actually think Erceg will win given the experience of his opponent and the stage. But at plus money here and the fact we are forced to pick an underdog, I think this is a more probable payout than the rest of the pick ‘ems on the card. Either way, I will be happy with the outcome.
Mike: Jose Aldo +120 (DraftKings)
The odds are stacked against the Hall of Famer but the thought of seeing Jose Also get leg-kicked into a second retirement in Rio of all places is too painful for my tiny brain to consider – even though objectively that is a realistic possibility. I’m riding with Aldo to turn back the clock and deliver another iconic moment in the city in which he learned to fight.
Aaron’s underdog record: 7-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$311
Dan’s underdog record: 3-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$695
Mike’s underdog record: 7-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$197
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Anthony Smith wins by Decision +1100 (FanDuel)
Smith has hit a rough patch of late, going 1-3 in his last four. However, those losses are to top contenders like Khalil Rountree, Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He now faces a young upstart in Vitor Petrino, who is 4-0 in the UFC in what looks to be a litmus test for the rare light-heavyweight prospect in their mid-20s. Perhaps I am in the minority, but I still believe that Smith is a tough fight for those outside of the top-10 and a solid gatekeeper who combines veteran savvy with a well-rounded skill set. If Smith wins, I expect it will be a tactically sound performance. It’s a long shot, but I believe there is value.
Dan: Paul Craig by submission +1100 (FanDuel)
This fight haunts my dreams. I completely stayed away from it until now. Yes, Caio Borralho is unbeaten and a heavy favourite…but that’s Paul Craig standing across from him! I will gladly lose this bet knowing that I acknowledged the probability of Craig snatching a limb here.
Mike: Myktybek Orolbai by Submission in Rounds 2 or 3 +1000 (FanDuel)
Elves Brenner has never been finished but Orolbai is a different level of prospect in my opinion, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he marches into Brazil and dominates an exciting young submission artist and locks in a choke after bullying him for a while.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-12-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$700
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$600
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-9-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,400
(Betting odds above subject to change prior to fights)
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