The Japan Innovation Party won 36 seats in Sunday’s Lower House election, a slight increase over its preelection total. But with the Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory giving it a two-thirds majority, the JIP’s role and continued influence as the junior ruling coalition partner is unclear.
For the moment, despite the LDP’s overwhelming victory, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and JIP senior leaders are vowing to stick together.
“This election campaign was one in which we asked the public about whether it was appropriate to proceed under the framework of a new coalition government with the JIP,” Takaichi said at a Monday night news conference.
“We interpret the results as having gained public understanding for and trust in this policy shift.”
For its part, the JIP’s strategy going forward is to continue to press Takaichi and the LDP, which controls 316 of the Lower House’s 465 seats, to enact an agreement the two parties made in October in exchange for the JIP becoming a partner in the ruling coalition.
JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura met with Takaichi late Monday afternoon, with the two discussing the 12-point agreement that covers nearly 50 policies.
“It’s crucial for the coalition government to implement these policies and I intend to advance them firmly within the Takaichi administration,” Yoshimura said after the meeting.
Other JIP leaders are also pushing the LDP not to stray from their agreement.
“We confirmed that we will proceed exactly as agreed, adhering strictly to the agreement document,” JIP parliamentary affairs chief Takashi Endo, who also serves as an adviser to Takaichi, told reporters Monday afternoon following a meeting with his LDP counterpart, Hiroshi Kajiyama.
For the JIP, the election results were a key test of its complicated relationship with the LDP.
In an unusual move, the LDP and JIP, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, competed with each other in district elections. The JIP’s strategy was to appeal to supporters of highly popular Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her policies, and convince them that the JIP rather than Takaichi’s LDP was best positioned to be the accelerator for her policies.
Instead, the JIP found itself nearly run off the road by its coalition partner — the LDP finished with 316 seats in the 465 seat chamber. The JIP, which went into the election with 34 seats, won 18 of the 19 districts in its Osaka stronghold, losing one to an LDP member. But it didn’t fare as well against its partner in most other parts of the country.
“It was extremely difficult, competing with the LDP in 85 districts while aiming to maximize seats in unity with the party, all the while trying to convey the strengths of the JIP and ensure everyone understood our role,” said JIP co-leader and Lower House member Fumitake Fujita late Sunday night late Sunday night following the election.
But despite the fact they were election rivals, Fujita said he expects the LDP, as the coalition partner, to honor the October agreement.
“While some points of the agreement have been achieved, the majority are either yet to be addressed or would have been discussed during the regular session of parliament had it not been dissolved and this election held,” he said.
“To put it simply: It’s about keeping their promises.”
Takaichi spoke Monday night about the possibility of a JIP member receiving a Cabinet post, though neither party has specifically named which post that might be or which JIP member might fill it.
Now that its votes in the Lower House are no longer needed for a majority, and with the LDP about to take control of all parliamentary committees, the JIP could find its coalition partner less willing to keep its promises on key elements of the October agreement, especially a 10% cut in the number of parliamentarians, which the JIP pushed hard for but many LDP members oppose.
In addition, while the LDP still needs the JIP and one other party for a majority in the Upper House, a two-thirds majority in the more powerful lower chamber means the LDP can override any vetoes in the upper chamber to its legislative bills.
“With the LDP`s majority in the Lower House, it will be more difficult for the JIP to pressure the Takaichi administration on its signature policy to reduce the number of parliamentary seats by 10%. Many in the LDP are opposed to the idea, and greater numbers in the LDP means the party will lack unity on the issue,” says Ritsumeikan University political science professor Masato Kamikubo.
“Takaichi will use the LDP’s increased diversity of opinions as a reason to continually postpone policy formation. She may eventually begin to disregard the JIP’s views,” he said.
Yoshimura says the LDP’s suddenly expanded size could slow parliamentary debate. But he added that was the reason why the smaller, more unified JIP was still needed — to keep up the pressure.
“With the LDP’s numbers increasing, diverse opinions within the party will also increase. Since the JIP isn’t large, we will focus on implementing our coalition agreement as the ruling coalition accelerator,” he said.
But with both elections over, the JIP faces its own problems with unity over a key issue — one that could distract the party in its Osaka base as it tries to come to grips with a new, more powerful LDP.
Yoshimura was reelected as Osaka governor on Sunday night in a snap election to gain voter support for a third referendum on the Osaka metropolis plan. Fellow JIP member Osaka Mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama was also re-elected.
Local voters said no in 2015 and 2020 to the Osaka metropolis plan, which would create a Tokyo-like governing structure. All other major parties are opposed to the plan and refused to stand candidates, seeing the double election as a political stunt by the JIP and a waste of time and money, given there will be another Osaka gubernatorial and mayoral election in the spring of next year.
The controversy raised questions about whether the JIP might consider a change of leadership. But, despite concerns about the JIP’s continued influence as a ruling coalition partner and the controversy with the party generated over the Osaka metropolis plan, it appears no one else can replace Yoshimura, at least for the time being.
Kamikubo says that while the JIP has lost its presence as a national party following the Lower House election results, the only senior party leader able to negotiate with the now-massive LDP is Yoshimura, who also remains fully committed to realizing the party’s flagship goal: the Osaka metropolis plan.
“For that to happen, Yoshimura’s name recognition and experience are essential to the party,” Kamikubo says.
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