When Surfline forecasters saw this healthy storm brewing early last week, they swiftly diverted our attention from whatever else was going on in the world to one place: South Africa. And whenever our attention gets diverted to South Africa, the first thing we do is contact our most trusted South African informant: intrepid surf-photojournalist Alan Van Gysen.
With myriad potential options being thrown around the African coastline, frothers were targeting everywhere from Skeleton Bay to J-Bay. But AVG had his sights set on a single zone: Cape Town, where South Africa’s most dedicated big-wave surfers were already en route, hoping to strike gold at the Cape’s marquee monsters: Dungeons and Sunset.
“The swell was super interesting,” AVG explains. “I didn’t think it was gonna be anything ridiculously special, like the swell of the year or anything like that. But one or two local guys were really backing the swell, they thought it was gonna be something pretty extraordinary, and some of the stalwart Dungeons and Sunset crew were claiming it, too. We even had “Grant ‘Twiggy’ Baker flying down from Durban, although he spent the majority of the time passing on the torch, training and teaching the younger up-and-coming generation while playing safety. So there was definitely some interest.”
“Twig, Josh Redman, Frank Solomon and James Lowe all showed up,” said Saffa pro Matt Bromley, reporting from atop the lookout point in Kommetjie, where surfers can check many spots at once and get a proper read on a swell’s behavior. “And AVG was out there on the ski shooting and doing water safety. Dungeons hasn’t broken for like three years, so we were amped to get out there. And a little scared [laughs]. I brought an 8’8” and a 10’2” paddler, one’s a quad and one’s a thruster, because I saw a pretty solid set at Sunset. Then I checked the live buoy and saw the swell had suddenly jumped from 12 seconds to 20 seconds. So, at 2.5 meters at 20 seconds, it looked like something big was on the way, which got us excited. And it was such a beautiful day in Cape Town.”
It was slow going that first morning, Friday the 13th, with Twiggy and co. towing some relatively small overheaders as the swell sluggishly started to manifest. But in terms of what this crew was after, it was pretty much a no-show. “Super tough day,” Bromley said. “Some biggish waves, maybe 20-25-foot faces on the biggest sets, but so broken up by the westerly.”
View The Live J-Bay Cam
“It was one of those very long-period swells to start, with huge gaps between sets,” AVG explains. “That 20-second period in South Africa always seems to come with very inconsistent sets, and that’s definitely what was happening. It also became quite evident on Friday, and even on Saturday, that this was gonna be a wobbly, mixed swell. A lot of us thought that was due to the strong, onshore westerly wind that was coming through from far out to sea. The whole ocean had this wobble on it, which makes it hard because Dungeons is such a big playing field. But there were still some really good sets when they did come through, maybe 15 to 20-foot, and the guys got a couple. But like I said, it was a long wait.”
“We thought we’d wake up on Saturday morning and it’d be a lot cleaner,” AVG continues. “Unfortunately it wasn’t. And the swell didn’t really jack up the size, either. Everyone was hoping it would stay in that 15 to 18-foot range, but once again, it was very broken up and wobbly. And there were these big, teepee peaks instead of those really good, long walls that are clean enough to paddle into. It wasn’t like this grand swell that came from far off and was all beautiful and clean, but Dungeons is very rarely clean anyway. But it was still amazing to see surfers like Sam Warren, Mark Taylor, and a bunch of these younger guys who are in their late teens and early twenties giving it a go at Dungeons. Because it’s such a vast, Jurassic-wilderness kind of big wave. It’s certainly not perfect, yet these young guys who don’t have jet-skis or the luxury of towing just wanna sit out there on big boards and feel the energy, regardless of what the swell’s gonna do. That’s great to see, and there’s definitely a changing of the guard coming.”
“In short, an imperfect swell but still some really fun waves,” AVG finishes. “Hopefully this is just the start of our winter and something really special is coming up. We’re currently in a cycle were we haven’t had a west swell, at least not a significant one, for five or six years, which is what Dungeons needs to operate. Until that day, it continues to be a sleeping giant.”
We also tapped Surfline lead forecaster Jonathan Warren for his insight on the swell. “Cape Town sits directly in the path of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm-track, so there’s certainly no shortage of swell,” he said. “Developing lows will track eastward from the South Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, sweeping very close or even straight into to this southwest corner of Africa. Given that the bulk of the swell produced by these storms pushes toward the E to NE, this zone regularly takes the full brunt of the energy, often going large to XL to even XXL.”
No shortage of swell in this zone, to be sure. “The tricky part for this region are the local conditions, which are always changing due to this constant barrage of close, successive storms passing under the continent,” said Warren. “With that said, there is usually always a window for the winds to eventually shift to an offshore direction, which can be very brief. Getting that favorable window to line-up with the peak of the swell is where the odds are against you. It does happen though, and given the geographic configuration of Cape Town, there is often good conditions to be had somewhere.
And this last warmup? “This latest swell event was a solid one, but for the renown big-wave spot of Sunset Reef to be proper, we simply need a stronger storm,” Warren said. “The fetch was positioned in a favorable location for sending a better angled, more westerly SW swell to get into this spot. However, ideally, we needed a larger wind-field of 40-50 knots or stronger, and especially if this fetch pushed toward the region, then stalled for a bit. Initially this storm was on the right track, but by the time the fetch expanded in size, it was starting to dip under Africa and weaken.”
SWELL SIGNATURE
STORM LOCATION/MOVEMENT: Eastward track across the South Atlantic, May 9th-14th
PEAK STORM INTENSITY: 960mb low flanked by a 1020mb high on the 10th
STRONGEST STORM WIND/SEAS: Wind speeds reaching 40-50 knots that kicked up seas up to 35-38+ feet
SWELL TRAVEL TIME: About 3-4 days from when storm was at its strongest
PEAK OF SWELL: 16-17 feet from the SW swell (240-210°) at 16-17 seconds
Discussion about this post