April starts out with a very active and potentially dangerous weather pattern this week. We will be activating a Weather Authority Alert for Wednesday for the threat of severe storms. That alert continues through Saturday for the potential of extreme rainfall and significant flooding impacts.
Wednesday brings another potentially significant severe thunderstorm outbreak. Ingredients for severe storms actually look more favorable than what we saw with Sunday’s system. That setup was rather borderline with respect to wind shear. Wednesday’s setup presents higher shear for rotating storms, combined with ample moisture and enough instability for explosive storm development. All forms of severe impacts are possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and possibly strong / long-track tornadoes. Timing of storms looks to be from mid afternoon into the evening (3PM-10PM). We are currently in a level 3/5 enhanced risk from the Storm Prediction Center, but they have already hinted at the potential for a future upgrade. A risk of severe storms could continue into Thursday.
The cold front that will help spark Wednesday’s storms will stall over our area from late Wednesday through Saturday. Multiple rounds of rain and t’storms will develop along this front, resulting in a potentially serious threat for flooding. Some forecast models are showing the possibility of some extreme rainfall totals during this four-day period. Conservative forecasts show a high likelihood of at least 4-8″ rainfall totals. There is some guidance indicating the potential for amounts as high as 10-15″. Even if the conservative totals materialize, there will be the potential for areas of flash flooding. If the more aggressive totals end up occurring, we could see a widespread threat for flash flooding and river flooding.
Stay tuned through the week. More updates to come.
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