A new study from the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University shows the likelihood of extreme weather in wheat-producing areas of the U.S. and China has increased significantly.
The world is getting hotter, causing shifts in seasonal patterns and increasing the amount of extreme weather such as severe droughts and heat waves, which can affect crop yields and food supplies. A recent study led by a researcher at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University found that the likelihood of extreme temperatures that could affect crop yields has increased significantly in wheat-producing regions of the U.S. and China.
The findings predict heat waves that happened approximately once every hundred years in 1981 are now likely to happen once every six years in the Midwestern U.S. and once every 16 years in Northeastern China. The work shows the range of conditions that people need to prepare for, even if they haven’t occurred yet.
“The historical record is no longer a good representation of what we can expect for the future,” said Erin Coughlan de Perez, Dignitas Associate Professor at the Friedman School and lead author on the paper, which will be published today (June 2) in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. “We live in a changed climate and people are underestimating current-day possibilities for extreme events.”
According to the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average global surface temperature in the last decade was 1.1 degrees
Winter wheat crops start their growth in the fall and are harvested the following summer. High temperatures in spring, when the plant is flowering, can affect the wheat’s development. At temperatures over 27.8 degrees Celsius (about 82 degrees
“My hope is that we can tell people that their die has changed. You can roll something really extreme,” Coughlan de Perez said. “Maybe you won’t roll an eight for a while, but I think it’s worth having some plans in place for when that happens.”
The researchers also identified regional and global atmospheric circulation patterns that could lead to severely hot and dry events, including a possible worst-case scenario where wheat production in both the U.S. and China is hit hard in the same season. Their results can help inform climate adaptation plans in these regions and ensure that stakeholders can prepare for the unprecedented events to come.
“I think, with climate change, we’re suffering from a failure of imagination. If we’re not imagining the kinds of extremes that could happen, then we won’t prepare for them,” Coughlan de Perez said. “We don’t have to be surprised. We can use tools at our disposal to try to understand what’s possible and be ready when it happens.”
Reference: “Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China” 2 June 2023, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y
Research reported in this article was supported by