Who will win Champions League race?

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One of the more unlikely outcomes of the season should be confirmed on Sunday.

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If Liverpool can avoid defeat at home on Sunday against Spurs, they’ll be named Champions of England for a record-tying 20th time.

Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace on Wednesday means Liverpool only needs a draw, one more point, to get over the line and add one of the big boys to their trophy case.

Spurs could delay the party — to the benefit of their hated North London rivals Arsenal — by winning, but to be honest, with one win in their past seven games it would be a shocker.

And, even if that did happen, what are the odds Liverpool would go pointless the rest of the way? None.

Liverpool was supposed to be in transition this season with iconic manager Jurgen Klopp stepping down and Arne Slot filling his seat. Most new managers spend furiously to put their brand on the team, but Slot’s squad bought two players — goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who they left on loan at Valencia and will join the team this summer, and reserve forward Federico Chiesa, who hasn’t started a Premier League game all season.

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Continuity does have its benefits. Liverpool has been perched on top spot since November and steadily grew its lead.

There has been a sense of disappointment from outside the city that the club’s season hasn’t been ‘special’ because of their early exit in the Champions League. But they lost on penalties to Paris St-Germain, a team funded by an oil-state owner who are in the semifinals and are favourites to win it.

Manchester City, another petroleum-fuelled super club with few qualms about blowing the budget every season on new players, have only been denied the crown twice in the past eight years. Both times it will be Liverpool who interrupted their reign.

In an era of sacking managers and spending millions on new players while hording current ones, it has been a refreshing message that sometimes patience and belief in what you have are undervalued.

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With the three promoted clubs all yo-yo-ing back down to the Championship, all that’s left to follow in these last five matchweeks will be the last two Champions League spots.

England has been granted a fifth entry into the lucrative tournament for next season and, looking at the table, only Liverpool and Arsenal can be assumed at this point.

Manchester City’s last-minute win in midweek against Aston Villa greatly boosted its hopes while denting Villa’s.

So If we look at City with 61 points (though both it and Aston Villa have played a game more than the other contenders) down to Villa at 57 points, there five clubs for three spots. Here’s their outlook:

Manchester City

Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

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They have a four-point cushion on the teams outside the qualification places, but have played one more game than Chelsea. Form has been better, having not lost in the past six games and winning four of the past five. This is an easy schedule with none of the teams they face having anything at stake. Odds are City finishes third and qualifies, Opta Statistics odds to qualify: 81%.

Nottingham Forest

Brentford (h), Crystal Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h)

The best story in the league outside of Liverpool winning an unexpected title. Brentford and Palace have proven they can beat anyone on the right day and can be a handful. Leicester and West Ham less so, so it could come down to the last day against Chelsea. That game is at home, and Chelsea’s many high-priced stars have been stuttering. Forest’s strength all season has been the stinginess in their own end, Liverpool and Arsenal are the only teams who have surrendered fewer goals this season. Opta Statistics odds to qualify: 79%.

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Newcastle

Ipswich (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h)

Had been the Premier League’s form team until they were thrashed by Villa last week where they looked poor. Ipswich will be a pushover, Chelsea are in the same battle here to get into the Champions League, but Newcastle get them at home and the Blues have only won twice in their past five. Brighton and Everton have enough quality to beat anyone on their day, so this isn’t a given. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have scored more goals this year than Newcastle and that’s massive as it will be wins not draws that likely decide this race. On paper this may be the hardest path, but they benefit from the fact that Arsenal won’t have any reason to push for a win and could be resting players for this year’s Champions League. Opta Statistics odds to qualify 75%.

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Chelsea

Everton (h), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), Manchester United (h), Nottingham Forest (a)

Will probably come down to the games against the two teams in the same ring as them, Newcastle and Forest. Everton has been rolling under David Moyes, Manchester United are frankly dreadful and Liverpool will have nothing to play for. If they don’t win the first four they’ll absolutely need to win at Forest on the last day to get in. Stakes are high, with an expensive, bloated squad not getting into the Champions League will likely mean wholesale change and maybe even a new manager yet again. Opta Statistics odds to qualify 29%.

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Aston Villa

Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester United (a)

After getting into the quarterfinals of this year’s Champions League, Villa and their fans had visions of their European Cup win in 1982 and want to continue the momentum into next season. Not qualifying will be a massive disappointment. Spurs and United are the two most disappointing teams in the whole league and have shown they have little fight in them. Bournemouth and Fulham have had spectacular moments this season, but have little to play for. Villa’s problem is they don’t play any team they’re chasing and will need help. They can probably reel in Chelsea, but they’re going to need Newcastle to slip up and be perfect to get into next year’s tourney. The loss to City in midweek was damaging. Opta Statistics odds to qualify 31%.

This weekend’s slate

Saturday: Chelsea vs Everton; Brighton vs West Ham; Newcastle vs Ipswich; Southampton vs Fulham; Wolves vs Leicester.

Sunday: Bournemouth vs Manchester United; Liverpool vs Tottenham.

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