Teens’ basic academic skills count in later life, study finds

Research shows people who struggle with reading and maths as teenagers suffer lasting disadvantage, especially if they are women or Māori.

The New Zealand Work Research Institute at Auckland University of Technology (AUT) found low scores in maths and reading tests at age 15 were associated with worse incomes, qualifications and crime and health statistics 11 years later.

It found women with poor literacy and numeracy had the lowest average incomes and were most likely to have children by their mid-20s.

However, males who tested badly at age 15 went on to earn about the same and be employed at about the same rate as females who had better literacy and numeracy when they were 15.

Māori who scored better than the low-skills group in reading and maths at age 15 had similar average earnings to Pākehā with low skills and lower rates of educational attainment than Pākehā with similar skills.

The study followed the education and employment experience of 51,700 people who sat the 2009 PISA assessments and could be tracked through Statistics New Zealand data until 2020.

It said 19 percent of the cohort had low skills in reading and/or maths as measured by PISA and the remainder of the group were described as “above-baseline”.

The report said 17 percent of the low-skills students went on to enrol in Bachelor’s degrees, but nearly half did not complete the qualification, whereas 40 percent of the above-baseline group held Bachelor’s degrees.

The study found the low-skills group had higher rates of hospitalisation and medical treatment than those above baseline.

“There is also little difference in the overall rate of mental health issues. However, the low-skills group are more likely to have substance abuse issues, while those in the above-baseline group are more likely to have sleep and eating problems and personality disorders,” the report said.

The study found a higher rate of crime among the low-skills group.

“More than a quarter of individuals in the low-skills group have had at least one conviction by 2020 compared with 8 percent of the above-baseline group.”

Declining results add to initial concerns

Professor Gail Pacheco
Photo: Supplied

One of the researchers, Professor Gail Pacheco, said the results were especially worrying because teenagers’ literacy and numeracy results had declined since 2009.

“When this was done nearly 20 percent of 15-year-olds fell into the low-skilled group and we know that our PISA results in terms of reading and maths are declining so this group is getting bigger and that’s going to have cohort effects on our labour market in the future,” she said.

“It’s going to have effects on the economy in terms of finding skilled workers but also effects on those individuals and their families if they aren’t able to get future employment.”

Professor Pacheco said the study had worrying results for Māori.

“It doesn’t seem like having higher skills in reading and maths is enough of a protective factor for Māori. For instance, Māori don’t seem to get that benefit from higher skills the same way New Zealand Europeans do. We found that Māori in the higher-skills group have similar average earnings to the New Zealand Europeans who have lower reading skills.”

She said the results highlighted the importance of ensuring young people could read, write and do maths well.

“Early intervention is really key because by 15 there are some life-course patterns that are already evident at least for the next 10 years,” she said.

The government is trying to raise literacy and numeracy and is introducing maths, reading and writing tests in 2024 that teenagers must pass before they can be awarded any level of the NCEA qualification.

The online tests were scheduled to be trialled in schools this week.