Updated Phillies World Series odds & analysis

With the NLCS upon us, it’s time to start looking at the Philadelphia Phillies’ World Series odds for 2022. If one were to rewind the clock six weeks, the Phillies’ playoff chances were quickly dwindling.

But against all odds, the Phillies have knocked off both the Cardinals and Braves and are just four wins away from reaching the World Series.

Phillies World Series odds 2022

Of course, before the Phillies and their fans start dreaming about winning the best World Series ever, it’s best to look at an NLCS preview and the Phillies’ World Series odds in 2022.

All odds taken October 19 at FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel currently lists Philadelphia at +240 to win the World Series, so the odds are still relatively long even after winning Game 1. Yet, the Phillies are still playing, which means they have a chance. Let’s take a closer look at whether the Phils will win the World Series in 2022.

Beyond the big two

The biggest reasons to believe in the Phillies’ World Series odds in 2022 are starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Wheeler only returned from the IL late in the regular season, but he has looked as sharp as ever in his three postseason starts. While he ran out of steam late in his start against the Braves in the NLDS, he was brilliant before that.

Nola, meanwhile, has been close to perfect in his two playoff starts. He’s allowed just one unearned run over 12.2 innings, yielding just nine hits while striking out 12. If he can continue to perform at that level, the Phillies will have two starters who can carry them.

The question is what the Phillies can expect from their other starters. They might need up to three starts in the NLCS and three more in the World Series from pitchers other than Wheeler and Nola.

Ranger Suarez walked five batters and was pulled with one out in the fourth inning when he faced the Braves in the NLDS. The lefty was clearly a little nervous in his playoff debut. The good news is Noah Syndergaard offers a little more playoff experience. But when he was called upon to start against Atlanta, he pitched just three innings, albeit a few days after appearing in relief. Even if Wheeler and Nola are going deep into games and eating up innings, the Phillies are going to need more out of Suarez and Syndergaard.

The bullpen conundrum

The Philadelphia bullpen has been a problem for the Phillies all season. It’s been arguably the team’s biggest weakness in 2022. To be fair, the Phillies have been good enough in that area to get to the NLCS. They’ve been able to hide that weakness thanks to a two-game series with the Cardinals and a short four-game series with the Braves.

Having off days during the postseason has also helped. But in a six or seven-game NLCS, will the Phillies be able to survive their bullpen issues?

Veterans like Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Hand, and David Robertson have been able to step up for the Phils.

But Zach Eflin, Connor Brogdon, Jose Alvarado, and Andrew Bellatti have all had instances in which they couldn’t get the job done. During the postseason, the Padres have proven that the batters at the bottom of their lineup are just as capable of producing as the middle of the order. That’s not going to change if the Phillies reach the World Series, especially if they face the Astros. Outside of Dominguez, Hand, or Robertson, the Phillies are playing with fire every time they go to the bullpen. While it’s been done, it’s hard to win a World Series in today’s game with a bullpen like that.

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Help for Harper

With questionable rotation depth beyond Wheeler and Nola on top of bullpen concerns, the Phillies might need to slug their way to a title in 2022. On paper, the Philadelphia lineup surely has the power to make that happen. Despite being shut out in Game 2 of the NLDS, the Phillies have scored at least six runs in four of their six postseason games.

Not surprisingly, Bryce Harper has led the way, batting .438 with three home runs and three doubles in those six games. But Harper hasn’t gotten the help he’ll need for the Phillies to keep advancing.

Kyle Schwarber has completely disappeared in the first two rounds, going just 1 for 20 during the playoffs after mashing 46 homers during the regular season. Rhys Hoskins has one home run but hasn’t provided much else, batting .154 with nine strikeouts in six playoff games.

The likes of Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and even J.T. Realmuto have all underperformed during the playoffs thus far compared to their numbers during the regular season. The Padres are going to make sure that Harper doesn’t beat them in the NLCS, so some of Philly’s other key hitters are going to need to step up and produce.

Will the Phillies win the 2022 World Series?

Heading into the NLCS, the smart money is against the Phillies winning the World Series in 2022. Winning a World Series is a team effort, and thus far it’s only been Wheeler, Nola, Harper, and a few relievers carrying the Phillies. That’s not going to be enough to win four games against the Padres and then beat the American League champion.

Granted, Wheeler, Nola, and Harper can surely make the NLCS interesting. But Philadelphia’s bullpen isn’t going to hold up in a seven-game series, especially with no off days between Game 3 and Game 7 in MLB’s new format.

Even if Wheeler and Nola continue to pitch at a high level and the Philadelphia offense provides some run support, the bullpen will ultimately prevent the Phillies from winning a championship in 2022.

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