Kiwis ‘learning to live’ with Covid-19 as pandemic becomes ‘endemic’

Covid-19 cases are rising due to complacency, waning immune systems and a lack of Government guidance, an epidemiologist says, but others say we’re “transitioning into an endemic state”.

More than 34,500 new cases (including 9099 reinfections) were reported on Monday – up 7400 on the previous week (27,076).

As many as one in 20 Kiwis could have the virus in the week before Christmas, according to Dr Emily Harvey, co-lead of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa’s contagion network modelling programme.

Harvey said there could be about 11,000 reported cases per day at the peak.

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With 4160 new cases and 37 people in hospital over the last week, Canterbury is one of the country’s hot spots for the virus.

“We are still transitioning into an endemic state (learning to live with Covid-19 in our communities),” Te Whatu Ora Canterbury’s Becky Hickmott said.

“This means that the disease is still around but at a level that is not causing significant disruption in our daily lives. We can expect to see smaller waves of Covid-19 in the future.”

The waves were putting pressure on the health system. About 100 Te Whatu Ora staff in the region were off work with Covid as of Monday, Hickmott said.

Epidemiologist Michael Baker said said both individuals and the Government should be doing more to decrease numbers and protect each other from the virus.

“The Government should be giving very clear guidelines of how to have safer work places, schools and social events.”

Baker suggested there needed to be a bigger push for testing, vaccinations, better ventilation, mask wearing inside, and holding gatherings outside.

He believed the Government and the public had dropped the ball on Covid-19 safety due to pandemic burnout.

“In a way they are reading the room. People want the pandemic to be over, but it isn’t.”

The Ministry of Health recommended continue wearing masks in high-risk settings, such as closed or crowded spaces with poor ventilation.

But at this stage, it had no plans to put any mask mandates in place for the busy Kiwi summer.

“The ministry regularly reviews the public health measures in place to manage Covid-19 and provides advice to the Government. Decisions on public health measures are made by Cabinet,” deputy director of public health Dr Richard Jaine said.

“The single most effective thing New Zealanders can do to protect themselves from severe disease remains being up-to-date with your vaccinations.”

Baker said three factors had led to the increase in Covid-19 numbers across the country: the Government had signalled it was less of a threat, Kiwis had waning immunity due to less push for vaccination, and the arrival of new variants that we did not have immunity for.

“This virus is showing its pattern now: this virus is going to cause rise and falls and waves of infection. I think early on there were hopes it would behave like influenza where it would have infected and dropped off.”

Epidemiologist Siouxsie Wiles said reinfection data showed those who’d had Covid were still vulnerable to catching new variants.

The vaccine and booster shots were doing a good job of helping people avoid hospitalisation and death, but it was not clear how long the booster shots were effective, she said.

There was only one message that need to be spread, she said: “Mask up in confined and badly ventilated spaces and do a RAT test before going to gatherings.

“If more of us did this then less infectious people would be out and about unknowingly. And obviously isolate if you test positive.”