A new poll confirms what many of us would expect: GOP voters have soured on Donald Trump, as has the majority of the country.
USA Today reports on a poll they conducted with Suffolk University, and the news is quite bad for Trump.
Super bad. Super duper you aren’t going to like this at all bad, former President Trump.
By 2-1, GOP and GOP-leaning voters now say they want Trump’s policies but a different standard-bearer to carry them. While 31% want the former president to run, 61% prefer some other Republican nominee who would continue the policies Trump has pursued.
They have a name in mind: Two-thirds of Republicans and those inclined to vote Republican want Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. By double digits, 56% to 33%, they prefer DeSantis over Trump.
“Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
That’s a huge drop for Trump, and a huge bump for DeSantis. Even I am surprised by DeSantis’ 23 point advantage over the former president. And I have been a DeSantis fan forever.
Before Trump supporters get all angry and claim that this heralds the return of the GOPe, that’s not what the poll says at all. Republicans have embraced the Trump agenda, but just don’t see Trump as the standard bearer who can get it done. It’s pretty hard to argue that he can when the same poll shows that Trump would lose badly to Joe Biden, but DeSantis would handily win the same race.
Among all voters, Trump has fallen further behind President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head. Now, Biden would win a general-election matchup by 47% to 40%. (Because of the effects of rounding, Biden’s margin is a bit wider than that indicates, at 7.8 points.) In October, Biden also led but by a narrower margin, 46%-42%. …
While Biden now leads Trump, he trails DeSantis in a head-to-head race, with DeSantis at 47%, Biden at 43%.
The Florida governor, who last month sailed to a second term in the Sunshine State, has significant standing nationwide. Two-thirds of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 65%, want him to run for president in 2024. Just 24% hope he doesn’t.
Trump appears to have lost his magic touch, and I suspect that a lot of that has to do with having been out of the limelight for a while. Trump’s political success had been driven by his ability to stay in touch with his supporters both on Twitter and more importantly in rallies. While he still has Truth Social and has done the occasional rally, for the most part he is much more isolated and besieged than he has been in the past.
He has never excelled at developing a circle of advisors–he has been uniquely awful picking aides–but now he has lost the most competent of them and is surrounded by 3rd tier players. Ivanka, a smart and capable advisor, doesn’t support his political ambitions, leaving him nobody to keep him grounded. The result is that the always hyperbolic Trump now appears unhinged to the majority of people. Every time he speaks he loses support.
As always, most of the criticism leveled at him is grossly unfair, but the difference today is that people are tired of defending him. Just enough of the criticism hits close to home–nobody wants to defend Ye or Nick Fuentes because they are awful–and Trump keeps forcing people to make excuses. It is a losing battle.
You can see the result–Trump loses badly to Biden, but DeSantis wins pretty handily. And since DeSantis is smart, articulate, competent, and fights our battles, it is a no brainer to support him. Hence the poll numbers.
Trump earned enormous loyalty from people. And I mean that–he earned it. He faced the united opposition of Hollywood, the press, the entire federal bureaucracy including law enforcement, the intelligence community, and corporate America and won significant battles. He has earned our thanks.
But it sure looks like the sequel “Trump III, the campaign” would be a box office flop. Investing our life savings into the project would be a big mistake.
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