Hostile drones have made frequent appearances in Moscow lately. They have struck buildings, knocked out windows and caused flights to be grounded, all while tying up Russian resources responding to incoming threats.
A modern skyscraper complex, which is home to government and private offices, has been hit three times in the span of a month. On Saturday, three Moscow-area airports had to shut down for more than an hour, as the latest drone-related emergency was dealt with.
Authorities have blamed Ukraine for the incursions, though Kyiv has not admitted this and has rarely claimed responsibility for attacks inside Russia.
Outside the Moscow area, drones have previously hit Russian airfields and key infrastructure, including in Russian-held Crimea, during the course of the war in Ukraine. Naval drones have also caused problems.
The recent occurrences in the Moscow area have been audacious in terms of where they have taken place — though the capital has seen prior attacks this year, and even the Kremlin has not been immune.
For those watching the conflict from the outside, it’s clear Ukraine is willing to push the envelope — and the drones making their way into Moscow are demonstrating to ordinary Russians that the war with Ukraine is not an abstract concern.
“It shows that the supposed Russian red lines regarding escalation are not actually existent,” said Andres Kasekamp, a history professor and expert on eastern Europe at the University of Toronto.
Ukrainian innovation
Ukraine has pushed Western nations to provide a wide array of weapons to fight back against the invasion Russia launched 18 months ago, but Kyiv hasn’t received everything it’s sought — including delivery of advanced fighter jets and some long-range missiles.
However, experts say Ukraine has turned to innovative means of striking targets within Russia — including via domestically produced drones.
Samuel Bendett, an adviser with the Russian studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a U.S. think-tank based in Arlington, Va., said Ukraine has been able to quickly adapt to producing tools — such as the UJ-22 — that it can deploy.
While it’s not clear they are all being launched from within Ukraine’s borders, Bendett said these devices are able to evade detection by approaching their targets low and slow.
And with Russia’s huge footprint, “there are always gaps that are going to be exploited” to make that approach, he said.
Kasekamp said these drones provide Ukraine with an economical way to strike targets, while also forcing Russia to “spread their own defences thinner” in a bid to countermand the incoming threats.
Brynn Tannehill, a technical analyst with the RAND Corporation, a global policy think-tank headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., said these homemade drones have an asymmetric cost advantage in that they are less expensive to produce than missiles that would be used to bring them down.
“The beauty of these things is that they’re cheap,” said Tannehill, a former U.S. naval aviator.
Tannehill noted, however, that the drones showing up in Moscow have a fairly small payload, meaning they have a limited capacity to do damage. That may temper the degree of attention local authorities put on suppressing them.
But the Kremlin is seemingly paying attention to the dangers the Ukrainian-based drone production is posing: A deadly Russian missile strike in Chernihiv earlier this month occurred as drone manufacturers had reportedly gathered there for an event.
A building was damaged, but no one was seriously hurt in the fourth drone attack on Moscow this month. Russian authorities accuse Ukraine, but Kyiv is not formally acknowledging the strike.
And reports emerged in January that air defences had been placed on key buildings in Moscow, a move that some read as an indication that parts of the Russian defence establishment had concerns about what could be coming down the road.
The New York Times reports that the drones are being addressed in Russian media, with a message focused on asserting the state’s ability to defend against the problem.
Sending a message
The CNA’s Bendett said he’s skeptical the recent strikes in Moscow will have much impact on how ordinary Russians view the war, because while the attacks pose an ongoing nuisance, “it takes a lot to rattle Muscovites” and Russian authorities.
Nonetheless, Bendett said Ukraine has put the Kremlin “on notice” that it has drones capable of hitting targets across western Russia.
The University of Toronto’s Kasekamp said Ukraine has proven it can reach into the heart of the Russian capital, denting the state’s image as an all-powerful actor and showing that Ukrainians “can actually strike back and cause damage” in response to Russian aggression.
Such actions may also provide a morale boost to Ukrainians who have endured so much during the war to this point, he said.
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