No Apple Watch Ultra 3 in 2024? Black titanium is good enough

So there may not be an Apple Watch Ultra 3 in 2024? No problem. People only want one thing from the Apple Watch Ultra anyway, and a new version number ain’t it.

Will there be an Apple Watch Ultra 3 in 2024?

It’s still too early to say one way or the other. Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the likelihood of Apple revising the Ultra next year is decreasing as we near the end of 2023.

“As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially,” he writes. “It is unusual given the product development schedule. If Apple doesn’t officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it’s almost confirmed that we won’t see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024.”

If Apple doesn’t plan to release an Apple Watch Ultra 3 next year, what would explain the missed year? Kuo suspects Apple “needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production.”

The supply chain analyst forecasts a 20–30% drop in Ultra sales in 2024 if there is no new model next fall. He extrapolates a 10% drop in overall Apple Watch sales if that happens. That would put his forecasted estimate for Apple Watch in 2024 around 35 million units shipped.

Black titanium

I’m sure an Apple Watch Ultra with Micro LED will be wonderful, and we can always use more health features. Those will be fine features for a revised future version. But as an Apple Watch Ultra 1 owner, there’s one thing that would make me drool over a new version: black titanium.

Apple has reportedly already tested a black variant of the Apple Watch Ultra, and it was considered ready to release before the Ultra 2 was announced. That didn’t happen, of course, but the iPhone 15 Pro shows Apple’s black titanium chops at work.

If Apple did nothing but add a black titanium option to the Apple Watch Ultra 2 next year, I’d seriously consider upgrading. However, I think upgrading the S9 chip to the S10 chip – however minor that will be – and calling it the Ultra 3 is just as likely as finally introducing the coveted black Ultra.

Would that be the sort of thing Kuo would be exposed to at this point with his expert supply chain viewpoint?