What are Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s MVP chances in 2024? We know he’s not yet among the greatest first basemen of all time. We also know he didn’t get off to the best start in 2024.
However, we also know that the 25-year-old has limitless potential. With plenty of time left in the season, is there a chance for Guerrero to turn things around enough to become an MVP candidate?
Assessing Vlad Jr.’s MVP Chances
Overall, Vlad Jr.’s stats this season don’t appear to be MVP-worthy. However, his sluggish April numbers are still weighing down what has been an amazing month of May.
If he keeps it up, Guerrero can still put himself into the middle of the 2024 AL MVP race. With that in mind, let’s look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s MVP chances in 2024.
The Basics
In the grand scheme of things, Guerrero isn’t particularly close to the MVP discussion. While he has an OPS over .800, he’s still more than 200 points behind the league leader. His five home runs this deep into the season are a paltry sum with three other players already reaching 17 home runs.
Plus, Guerrero’s 25 RBI through 52 games is not even half the total of league leader Jose Ramirez. To be fair, Guerrero ranks among the top five American League hitters in batting average and on-base percentage. But that’s not going to be enough to mount an MVP case.
Advanced Stats
While some of his numbers have been a little disappointing thus far, there are reasons to think that Guerrero has been a little better this year than the stats say. You just have to look at some of his advanced stats.
For instance, Guerrero is top five in the majors in exit velocities and top five in most balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater. In fact, his hard-hit percentage trails only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. Surely, those numbers put Guerrero in exclusive company amongst some of the game’s best hitters, including some former MVPs.
Making His Move
As mentioned, Guerrero got off to a sluggish start to the season in April. In April, he hit just .219 with an OPS of .629. But Guerrero has turned things around in May, which isn’t surprising when you look at some of his advanced stats.
Through his first 20 games in May, Guerrero is batting .382 with an OPS of .979. Even with just two home runs during that stretch, he’s putting up the kind of numbers that make someone an MVP candidate and that you would expect for someone who’s making hard contact as often as he has this year.
Team Success
Like it or not, team success does play a factor in MVP voting. While players like Mike Trout have won MVP multiple times on teams that didn’t make the playoffs, Toronto’s success can only help Guerrero’s MVP candidacy. Thus far, the Blue Jays aren’t cooperating, sitting last in the AL East. Of course, part of that was due to Guerrero’s slow start in April, although he wasn’t the only Toronto hitter who struggled early in the season.
Nevertheless, Guerrero’s surge in May hasn’t been enough to lift the Blue Jays out of the basement. The silver lining is that Toronto is still just a handful of games out of a Wild Card spot.
The Verdict
Could Guerrero overcome his poor April and make a strong case for MVP by the end of the year? That’s absolutely possible with so much time left in the season. We know he has the track record to perform at an elite level while his advanced stats this year indicate he could end up having one of his better seasons.
However, Guerrero surely put himself behind in the race with his slow April. In all likelihood, he will need to maintain his productivity from May for the rest of the season while leading the Blue Jays to the playoffs to make a legitimate MVP argument. Right now, that doesn’t seem particularly likely, although we’re saying that there’s a chance.
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