Earth’s population will peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s, UN predicts

An aerial view of Ciudad Bolivar neighbourhood south of Bogota, in May 2020 (AFP / Raul ARBOLEDA

• The human population will reach a maximum of 10.3 billion, according to a new forecast.
• That peak is due in around 2080, after which Earth’s population will drop a bit more sharply than previously thought.
• In the next 30 years, another 50 countries should see their populations peak.

Earth’s population will peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion people, then drop slightly to a level much lower than anticipated a decade ago, the United Nations said.

The current population of 8.2 billion people will rise to that maximum over the next 60 years, then dip to 10.2 billion by the end of the century, says a report released Thursday entitled “World Population Prospects 2024.”

It said the size of the world’s population in 2100 will be 6% lower, or 700 million people fewer, than what was anticipated in June 2013.

“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

He said the unexpected population peak stems from several factors that include lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.

He said this lower maximum will also come earlier than previously calculated and this is a hopeful sign as the world fights global warming: fewer humans accounting for less aggregate consumption would mean less pressure on the environment.

“However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” this official said.

More than a quarter, or 28% , of the world’s population now lives in one of 63 countries or areas where the population has already peaked, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany, the report said.

Nearly 50 other countries should join that group over the next 30 years, including Brazil, Iran and Turkey.

But population growth will continue in more than 120 countries beyond 2054. These include India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, said the UN.

A rise in global life expectancy — interrupted by the Covid pandemic — has resumed, with an average of 73.3 years of longevity in 2024. It will average 77.4 years in 2054.

So the world’s population will get more and more grey. By the late 2070s, the number of people 65 or older is projected to be 2.2 billion, surpassing those under 18, the study predicts.