What could happen next in the Middle East

How high are the risks of a full-blown regional war?

US President Joe Biden on Sunday (AEST) expressed hope Iran would stand down despite its threat to avenge the assassination.

The deaths have increased the risk of a dangerous escalation in Israel’s Gaza war and of a regional conflagration pitting Israel against Iran and its proxies. Officials and analysts in the region said the assassination indicated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to shift the war’s rules of engagement, moving beyond Gaza to directly eliminate Hamas leaders and strike Iran proxies elsewhere.

The attack is seen by analysts and officials as one of Israel’s biggest blows yet to Iran and its allies. They said the timing and location were also chosen to embarrass Tehran, which was hosting Haniyeh and other regional dignitaries at the inauguration of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

In response to a shouted question by reporters as to whether Iran would stand down, Biden said on Sunday (AEST), “I hope so. I don’t know.”

Seeking to bolster defences in the Middle East in response to threats from Israel’s foes, the Pentagon said it would deploy additional fighter jets and warships to the region. The US and international partners including France, Britain, Italy and Egypt continued diplomatic contacts, seeking to prevent further regional escalation.

Two Iranian sources said that Haniyeh’s killing sent shockwaves through Iran’s top leadership, who are now deeply concerned that their security forces were infiltrated by Israel. There is also growing anxiety about their arch-foe’s ability to reach and assassinate high-ranking Iranian officials.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said avenging the killing is Iran’s “duty” as it occurred in the Iranian capital. Israel had provided the grounds for harsh punishment for itself, he said.

The killing confronts Pezeshkian with his first major crisis. Iran has adopted a dual policy of avoiding direct engagement in full-scale war while backing militant groups that have been firing at Israel from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.

Hossein Alai, a former commander of the Guard, told Iran’s Jamaran website, without citing evidence: “The United States definitely had close cooperation with Israel in both operational and intelligence aspect in the plan to assassinate Haniyeh.

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“By carrying out this assassination, Israel wanted to show Palestinian groups that there is no safe place for them to live and be present anywhere in the world … it was also a message to Pezeshkian that we will not allow changes in Iran and its establishment of good relations with the world.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was not involved in Haniyeh’s killing.

What are Iran’s options for retaliation?

Iran has several options, but analysts, officials and militant leaders say that all carry risks of escalation.

It could respond by launching drones and missiles in a retaliatory strike on Israel, similar to the retaliatory attack it launched after Israel targeted its embassy compound in Damascus in April, killing seven senior military commanders.

Israel then retaliated with a calibrated attack on Iranian territory that caused no human losses.

Iran could also assassinate Israeli diplomats or officials or attack Israeli missions overseas.

Tehran may opt to retaliate via armed proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s Shi’ite militias, which could step up their attacks against Israel and U.S. interests in the region.

“This Israeli attack on Haniyeh is embarrassing for Iran. It is a strike at the heart of Iranian leadership; it is a strike at the security and intelligence establishment,” said Adeeb Ziadeh, an expert in international affairs at Qatar University who has studied Hamas.

Iran would have to respond to make up for what was a major security shortcoming, Ziadeh said. “This is a powerful and harsh hit to Iran.”

What does this mean for Hezbollah?

The attack on Shukr compounded the risks of escalation in the conflict between heavily armed Hezbollah and Israel, which have been exchanging fire since the Gaza war erupted in October in a largely contained confrontation.

Analysts say Hezbollah will be compelled to retaliate with a response that reflects Shukr’s standing as Hezbollah’s top military commander but also takes account of the fact that Israel struck him in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut.

Hezbollah could attack areas of Israel it has not yet hit in the current conflict, including urban centres, risking a spiral of retaliation and counter-retaliation.

Who succeeds Haniyeh and what does it mean for Hamas?

The most likely successor is Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials said. Under Meshaal, Hamas has emerged as an ever more important player in the Middle East conflict due to his charisma, popularity and regional standing, analysts said.

Meshaal narrowly survived an assassination attempt ordered by Netanyahu in 1997.

Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya is also a possibility as he is a favourite of Tehran and its regional allies, the analysts said. Meshaal’s relations with Iran have been strained due to his support of the Sunni-led 2011 Syrian revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli cities, will remain the commander in Gaza.

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What now for Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks?

The killing of Haniyeh, a crucial interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations, has ended any chance of an imminent agreement, Hamas sources and analysts initially said

Despite this ceasefire discussions on Gaza have continued, with an Israel delegation led by the Mossad chief briefly visiting Cairo. The US has urged Israel to seize the chance for a ceasefire.

What next for Netanyahu and his coalition?

Netanyahu’s government was silent on Haniyeh’s killing, although some hardline ministers not connected with defence and foreign policy posted celebratory messages on social media.

The government has faced rifts over issues including the conduct of the Gaza war, with hardline religious nationalist parties pressing the military for tougher action.

But ministers have been united on the need to destroy Hamas. Opposition leader Yair Lapid welcomed Haniyeh’s killing, while social media carried images of Israelis celebrating.

“Netanyahu will have, at least for a moment, what he wants: becoming the flag around which Israelis rally. And his coalition will certainly not turn against him,” said Uriel Abulof, an associate professor at Tel-Aviv University’s School of Political Science, Government and International Affairs.

Families of hostages in Gaza, who have led protests pushing for a deal to halt the fighting, said true security depended on the release of all remaining 115 hostages and urged Netanyahu to accept a deal.

What are the implications for Biden’s Middle East goals?

The escalation will add to the many obstacles already facing Biden’s ambitious diplomatic gamble to end the Gaza war, provide a path to Palestinian statehood with security for Israel and secure a US-Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal. The killing may leave the US administration scrambling to limit the fallout rather than reshaping the region in its final months.

A Western diplomat said the situation could be read either as Israel trying to drag the US into a regional war or as Netanyahu wanting a win to sell to Israelis. But a strong response to Haniyeh’s death could bring strong retaliation by Israel, triggering “a vicious cycle and all hell breaks loose”.

Reuters