‘More restrictive policy’ may still be needed

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will hail the progress made in dampening inflation in the U.K. in a Friday speech, but also caution that monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer than expected due to shocks from the labor market.

Headline inflation has “fallen sharply as energy and food price shocks in particular have fallen away,” while higher rates have helped tackle so-called second round effects such as wage growth and price-setting, Bailey is expected to say in a speech at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Headline price rises in the U.K. hit the BOE’s 2% target for two months this year, before rising to 2.2% in July.

Risks to persistent inflation are lower than they were a year ago, Bailey will say, adding that he currently places more weight on a scenario in which “the persistence is essentially self-correcting with the degree of restriction we have in place today easing off over time.”

However, he will caution that two less “benign” scenarios remain possible that will require the Bank of England to “maintain restriction for longer.”

These scenarios “would suggest that there are structural changes in product and labor markets going on which are causing the supply side of the economy to change as a lasting legacy of the major shocks we have experienced,” he is expected to say.

It comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave his firmest comments yet indicating that interest rate cuts lie ahead for the world’s biggest central bank, stating: “The time has come for policy to adjust.”

BOE policymakers have repeatedly flagged concerns over the rate of U.K. wage growth and tightness in the jobs market. Meanwhile, inflation in services, the U.K.’s dominant sector, remains above 5%.

The BOE cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August, its first cut in the current cycle. But it kept market participants guessing until the last minute over whether it would hold them steady amid division among its voting members, who nudged the decision to cut over the line by 5 votes to 4.

Markets have almost fully priced in another 50 basis points in cut this year, according to LSEG data.

“Tentatively, it appears to me that the economic costs of bringing down persistent inflation – costs in terms of lower output and higher unemployment – could be less than in the past,” Bailey will also say Friday.

“This is consistent with a process of disinflation which is steady and more in keeping with a soft landing than a recession induced process.”

The U.K. economy has returned to growth this year after a short and shallow recession in 2023, with gross domestic product expanding by 0.7% and 0.6% in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively.