Ukrainians expect Russia to launch offensive to strengthen position

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KYIV, Ukraine — Russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize the pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said.

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The move could give Russian President Vladimir Putin every reason to delay discussions about pausing the fighting in favor of seeking more land, the Ukrainian officials said, renewing their country’s repeated arguments that Russia has no intention of engaging in meaningful dialogue to end the war.

With the spring fighting season drawing near, the Kremlin is eyeing a multi-pronged push across the 1,000-kilometre (621-mile) front line, according to the analysts and military commanders.

Citing intelligence reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is getting ready for new offensives in the northeast Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizizhia regions.

“They’re dragging out the talks and trying to get the U.S. stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake ‘conditions’ just to buy time and then try to grab more land,” Zelenskyy said Thursday in a visit to Paris. “Putin wants to negotiate over territory from a stronger position.”

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Two G7 diplomatic officials in Kyiv agreed with that assessment. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.

Russia has effectively rejected a U.S. proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting, and the feasibility of a partial ceasefire on the Black Sea was thrown into doubt after Kremlin negotiators imposed far-reaching conditions.

Four people died and 24 were injured Friday evening after Russian drones struck Dnipro in the country’s east, according to regional Gov. Serhii Lysak and Ukraine’s emergency service. At least eight more people were injured when a Russian ballistic missile struck nearby Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown, Gov. Lysak reported.

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Battlefield success is clearly in Putin’s mind.

“On the entire front line, the strategic initiative is completely in the hands of the Russian armed forces,” Putin said Thursday at a forum in the Arctic port of Murmansk. “Our troops, our guys are moving forward and liberating one territory after another, one settlement after another, every day.”

Kremlin forces keep pressing forward

Ukrainian military commanders said Russia recently stepped up attacks to improve its tactical positions ahead of the expected broader offensive.

“They need time until May, that’s all,” said Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi, who works with soldiers and learns about intelligence from them.

In the north, Russian and North Korean soldiers have nearly deprived Kyiv of an essential bargaining chip by retaking most of Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian soldiers staged a daring incursion last year. Battles have also escalated along the eastern front in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.

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A concern among some commanders is whether Russia might divert battle-hardened forces from Kursk to other parts of the east.

“It will be hard. The forces from Kursk will come on a high from their wins there,” said a Ukrainian battalion commander in the Donetsk region, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe his concerns.

“They are preparing offensive actions on the front that should last from six to nine months, almost all of 2025,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleksii Hetman, who has connections to the military’s general staff.

Fighting intensifies on parts of the front line

Russia entered negotiations with a clear advantage in the war. Now, after recapturing 80% of its territory in the Kursk region ahead of talks, its forces have intensified their fighting across other parts of the front line.

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“The number of clashes on the front line is not decreasing,” Hetman said. “If they wanted to stop the war, their actions certainly don’t show it.”

Russia ramped up reconnaissance missions to find and destroy firing positions, drone systems and other capabilities that could impede a future onslaught, two Ukrainian commanders said.

“These can be all signs that an attack is being prepared in the near future,” Hetman said.

Fighting also intensified in the eastern city of Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region. Its capture would bring Russia closer to its stated aim of capturing the entire region.

“The Russians were significantly exhausted over the past two months. During 10 days of March, they took a sort of pause,” military spokesman Maj. Viktor Trehubov said of the situation in Pokrovsk. In mid-March, the attack resumed. “This means the Russians have simply recovered.”

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Russia increases reconnaissance missions

A Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Italian” said Russia was conducting intensive reconnaissance in his area of responsibility in the Pokrovsk region. Radio intercepts and intelligence show a buildup of forces in the area around Selidove, a city in the Pokrovsk region, and the creation of ammunition reserves, he said.

The buildup includes large armored vehicles, and the many new call signs overheard in radio transmissions suggest that fresh forces are coming in, he said.

Farther south, a military blog run by Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former officer of the Russian Defense Ministry’s press section, noted last week that Russian troops recently unleashed a new offensive west of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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The offensive will allow Russian forces to move toward the city of Zaporizhzhia and “force the enemy to redeploy its troops from other sectors, leaving Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka badly protected,” the blog known as Rybar said, adding that the new offensive “could be the first step toward the liberation of the Zaporizhzhia region.”

On Friday, Vladyslav Voloshyn, a spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, said the situation in the region is fraught after Russia amassed more forces to conduct assaults with small groups of infantry.

“The tactic of using these small groups brings results to Russia” in other parts of the front line, he said.

Russian analysts project optimism that a future offensive will succeed.

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“Both sides are actively preparing for the spring-summer campaign,” Sergey Poletaev, a Moscow-based military analyst, wrote in a recent commentary. “There’s a growing sense that the Ukrainian forces may be struggling to prepare for it adequately. Despite being worn down from combat, the Russian army has a real chance of achieving decisive success in the next six months to a year. This could lead to the collapse of Ukrainian defenses.”

Little progress reported at negotiating table

Meanwhile at the negotiating table, Russian demands have curtailed the results of much-anticipated negotiations brokered by the U.S.

Earlier this month, after Russia effectively turned down the U.S. proposal for a complete, monthlong halt in the fighting, Moscow tentatively agreed to a partial ceasefire on Black Sea shipping routes.

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But that agreement was quickly cast into doubt by Russia’s insistence on far-reaching conditions that its state bank be reconnected to the SWIFT international payment system, something Kyiv and the EU rejected outright.

Along the front line, the reported ups and downs of the talks fuel frustration and worry.

“No one believes in them,” said the Ukrainian soldier known as Italian, who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign in keeping with military protocol. “But there is still hope that the conflict will move in another direction. Everyone is waiting for some changes in the combat zone because it is not good for us now. We really don’t want to admit that.”

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