Did Climate 200 get bang for its buck this election?

An evergreen point of clarification: Climate 200 does not select candidates or run independent campaigns. The funding aggregator supports community-nominated indies, trying to ensure donors’ money goes where it’s most effective.

It unfortunately bears repeating, since so much of the media refuses to accept that convenor Simon Holmes à Court is not the movement’s “puppet master”, or even a major donor, contributing only a small fraction of the money raised, which is itself only a portion of each independent’s piggy bank.

That said, Climate 200 was supporting a lot of candidates this year — 35, according to its website. So how’d it do?

You probably haven’t heard much, in part because there haven’t been any big wins, like in 2022, when blue-ribbon seats fell like dominoes. But seven of the eight incumbents that Climate 200 supported retained their seats, with the exception of Zoe Daniel, who lost to an insanely determined Tim Wilson (previous beneficiaries David Pocock and Zali Steggall forewent funding this time, “graduating” from the mothership). Sophomores Sophie Scamps, Kate Chaney and Allegra Spender all increased their margins — no small feat given the resources thrown at defeating the “teals”. 

Of the 27 candidates who Climate 200 helped contest seats, the best chance of a win is in Bean in the ACT, where midwife Jessie Price is narrowly ahead of Labor. Kate Hulett gave Labor a scare in Fremantle, after doing the same at the state level, showing climate-focused independents are coming for both sides — with a message for Anthony Albanese, should he choose to heed it.

But it was a disappointing night for return favourites Alex Dyson and Caz Heise, regional indies I spoke to for Well Hung. “Shadow member for Bradfield” Nicolette Boele is still in the race, just.

There are still six Liberal-held seats where the independent could pull through: Bradfield, Monash, Flinders, Grey, Fisher and Forrest. Any of these could flip if preferences flow in the independent’s favour, with the AEC conducting a record number of 3CP counts (Grey is particularly close). And yet indies may end up falling short in all six.

Asked on Thursday night about Climate 200’s success rate, Holmes à Court says the numbers are still in flux. But a seat or two could make a world of difference to how the result is read.

“If the crossbench had lost three [community independents], people would say, ‘Oh, that was just a Morrison-fuelled bubble and it was never a real thing,’” he says. “But if it went forward three seats, the media would be writing, ‘This is a genius movement, the movement’s here to stay, and it’s a fundamental realignment of Australian democracy’ … The difference between those two extremes is a thousand votes in half a dozen seats. If you win or lose, it’s seen as everything, but it’s still only a few hundred votes.”

Even without wins, there are impressive swings. First-time candidate Michelle Milthorpe cut Sussan Ley’s margin from 16.4% to just over 5% — something now being splashed across Liberal leadership shit sheets. The same goes for the LNP’s Fisher, where Keryn Jones looks set to finish second — though the AEC is still showing a Labor/LNP count.

“There’s no silver medal in politics, but if they did hand out medals, 22 community groups would be walking away with gold or silver after last weekend,” says Holmes à Court. 

But politics is, as they say, a numbers game. ALP powerbroker Don Farrell has been out gloating about their majority, telling the Daily Telegraph the “teals can’t blackmail us” now. 

And there’s no avoiding the disappointments in Cowper and Wannon — the latter of which received a significant chunk of funds, yet saw a slight 2CP swing to the Libs, bucking the trend. Some suggest Climate 200 is wasting its resources in the country, where the “teal” association may hurt more than it helps. After all, a regional indie did win big this election, in Calare — just not the Climate 200-backed one.

On future strategy, Holmes à Court offers no comment, but points to the thousands of local donors who also wanted better representation in these areas, saying Climate 200’s 33,000 donors were proud to help.

So how does he feel overall, given the fact this was clearly not Climate 200’s election?

“The movement has come out even stronger than it was at the end of 2022,” he says, noting that 1 million people voted independent this election — up from 776,000 in 2022. “So many metrics have moved in the right direction.”

While the Greens went backwards in this election, Holmes à Court is certain climate is still important to Australian voters, pointing to how Liberal Andrew Constance inadvertently raised $1 million for the group after suggesting the Coalition would abandon the commitment to set a 2035 emissions target. 

“That, plus our internal polling, showed that climate was never off the table,” he says. “A lot of media like to think that voters could only hold the idea of cost of living in their heads and nothing else. But if you ask people questions that teased out whether they cared about climate still, it was still very salient.” 

Another lesson for Albanese, should he be able to hear it amid his victory.