If you’re old enough to remember when streaming sounded like something you’d do by the water and the closest thing to a remote control was a cable box that stretched to the recliner, you’ll appreciate Major League Baseball has kicked off the summer months with reruns.
A Los Angeles Dodgers–New York Yankees clash dominated by Los Angeles? Didn’t we see that last year? And didn’t the Dodgers get to the World Series by outlasting the New York Mets in the NL Championship Series?
Granted, this is an imperfect analogy. First of all, the World Series rematch preceded the NLCS rematch — though if anyone would decide to grow the game by playing the championship round before the semifinals, it’d probably be Rob Manfred.
And the Mets, who fell in six games in the NLCS, have already clinched a season series win against the Dodgers by taking four of the six games between the teams heading into Thursday’s West Coast matinee.
In addition, the lottery-like nature of baseball’s expanded playoffs makes it a long shot that we’ll see an LCS rematch — never mind a World Series rematch. There have only been six LCS rematches since the wild card was implemented in 1995 (though the Dodgers have played in the last three). And the last World Series rematch was in 1978, when the Yankees beat the Dodgers for the second straight year.
Still, the last few days have confirmed what the first third of the season taught us: We can see much of the October template already falling into place.
The Detroit Tigers (41-22) have built off last season’s surprising trip to the playoffs by getting off to the best start in the game. But even with the randomness of October and their own flaws, it’s hard to see an ALCS that doesn’t feature the Yankees, who are as top-heavy as ever — but at least top-heavy in all the right places.
The ability to set up their rotation with a first-round bye favors the Yankees, whose top two starters, Carlos Rodón and Max Fried, are a combined 15-4 with a 2.21 ERA. Aaron Judge, meanwhile, might win the Triple Crown and has an OPS of 1.237 — a mark exceeded over a full season since World War II by only Ted Williams and Barry Bonds.
A much deeper NL field makes it harder to project a pennant winner but also easier to forecast the eventual champion winning it all. Interleague play has been remarkably close thus far (the NL holds a 139-138 lead), but the current top four seeds in the Senior Circuit — the Mets, Chicago Cubs, Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies — are 38-21 against the AL.
The Dodgers are just 29-25 since their 8-0 start, but outscoring the Yankees 29-14 last weekend was a reminder a vast gulf still exists between the clubs. The Mets dropped a Subway Series to the Yankees three weeks ago, way back when Juan Soto was in a funk. Soto has three homers and a 1.395 OPS over the last six games and appears to have fully bought into the Mets’ vibes.
The Cubs are 8-1 in interleague play and have Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just might give 50/50 a run. The Phillies have a pair of potent 1-2 punches in pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo and lineup mainstays Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who have combined for 24 postseason homers — 12 apiece — over the last three years.
Add it all up and if the playoffs aren’t a rerun four months from now, there’s a really good chance they’ll at least be a reboot.
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