UFC 316 Best Bets: O’Malley’s Revenge, Harrison’s Statement, and Spivac’s Edge

The anticipated UFC 316 card — anchored by Merab Dvalishvili going for a second win over Sean O’Malley — is heavy on drama and underdogs.

Let’s get right to swinging with a look at the best bets for this fight card:

Serghei Spivac (-140) to beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Spivac is a much better wrestler than Cortes-Acosta, and while Spivac’s stand-up game is lacking, his 8-inch reach advantage in this fight should help him lessen some of the gap in that area.

Four of Spivac’s five losses in the UFC have come by knockout, and Cortes-Acosta’s power isn’t all that daunting despite his advantage in the stand-up game — he has just a 46.2% knockout rate in his 13 bouts.

I expect Spivac to weather the storm early before taking advantage of a tiring Cortes-Acosta on the ground in the second half of the fight en route to a victory by decision or a late submission. 

Sean O’Malley (+220) to beat Merab Dvalishvili

As someone who successfully bet on Dvalishvili in the first bout against O’Malley at the Sphere this past September, something feels different about this fight.

O’Malley seems infinitely more focused in the lead-up, having minimized his distractions and antics outside of the octagon. He actually kept that first fight closer than most remember, despite Dvalishvili’s objective victory — and he even had Dvalishvili on the ropes a little bit in the fifth and final round.

O’Malley’s trainer has said in recent interviews that he believed the Sphere’s lighting and atmosphere contributed to O’Malley’s loss, which isn’t that hard to believe if you’ve ever been inside that thing.

On the other hand, we’ve still gotten the same old, same old from Dvalishvili in his fight camp. He’s still posting his injuries on his Instagram Story — much to Dana White’s dismay — which tells me he might not be taking O’Malley that seriously.

In terms of mentality, it feels like the cards have flipped from the first fight, and that’s why I feel comfortable rolling with O’Malley’s value here.

Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña under 3.5 rounds (-140)

Kayla Harrison is out to prove she’s the UFC’s biggest star in the women’s division this Saturday, and she enters as a massive -800 favorite to win the belt — despite entering as the challenger — against scrappy Julianna Peña.

Despite this, Harrison’s odds to win the fight by decision are just +235. That means Vegas is confidently predicting a stoppage.

Considering Peña is a more experienced fighter who possesses knockout power in her own right, I expect her to go hunting for the kill early — knowing she has a diminishing chance with each second Harrison remains conscious.

Peña isn’t a scrub either, as she carries two wins over former champion Amanda Nunes. Someone is getting stopped in this one — and it will be before the fourth-round bell. Likely Peña.