Celebrate the truce — but it doesn’t promise peace

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. In yesterday’s newsletter, we talked about how a blitzkrieg of missile-led diplomacy seemed to help de-escalate tensions.

The flipside of that strange path to a truce is that missiles are, well, fundamentally weapons. Mere hours after both countries agreed to the ceasefire, Israel said its longtime rival had fired missiles into its borders — an accusation which Tehran denied — and was preparing to “respond forcefully.” Probably with more missiles.

U.S. President Donald Trump — who reportedly brokered the ceasefire with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — expressed frustration with those developments.

“I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either but I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning,” Trump told a reporter pool en route to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.

His admonishments seemed to work. There is now a fragile armistice between the two countries.

Oil prices fell and U.S. stocks jumped.

Reuters uploaded a photo of Israeli residents playing frisbee at the beach on June 24. Flights at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport are resuming, and Iran’s airspace is partially open, according to flight monitoring firm FlightRadar24, CNBC reported at around 3 a.m. Singapore time.

Three hours after that update, NBC News, citing three people familiar with the matter, reported that an initial assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency found the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday left “core pieces … still intact.”

Trump pushed backed on those accusations Tuesday night, writing that “THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!”

And so it goes.

Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, for now
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announced by Trump on Monday, appears to be holding. Israel on Tuesday said it would honor the ceasefire so long as Iran does the same. Earlier in the day, both countries accused each other of violating the truce, and said they were ready to retaliate, prompting Trump to say he’s “not happy” with them. Stay updated on the Israel-Iran conflict with CNBC’s live blog here.

Markets jump as traders bet on truce
U.S. stocks jumped Tuesday on expectations that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold. The S&P 500 gained 1.11% to put it just 0.9% away from its 52-week high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.19% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.43%. The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.53% to close at an all-time high. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Wednesday. China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.63% at 1:50 p.m. Singapore time. Tech stocks, such as NetEase and Tencent, were up on news that Beijing approved a large number of games in June.

Oil pares losses
Oil prices regained some ground during Asia trading hours Wednesday. Both U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent rose around 1.5%. On Tuesday stateside, oil prices tumbled roughly 6%. Earlier in the day, Trump said China can keep buying oil from Iran, in what seemed like a sign that the U.S. may soften its pressure campaign against Tehran.

Powell says Fed is ‘well positioned to wait’
At a U.S. congressional hearing Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy was still strong. But he noted that inflation is still above the central bank’s target of 2%, and the Fed has an “obligation” to prevent tariffs from becoming “an ongoing inflation problem.” In combination, those considerations make the Fed “well positioned to wait” before making a decision on interest rates.

Don’t make trade political: Chinese premier
“Globalization will not be reversed,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday through an official English translation at the World Economic Forum’s annual conference in China, often dubbed “Summer Davos.” Li urged all sides not to turn trade into a political or security issue, and said engaging in the international economy is a way of “reshaping the rules and order.”

[PRO] Not ‘bullish enough’ on rally: HSBC
The S&P 500′s rally off its April lows has brought it back to roughly 1% off its record high in a very short time. It’s an advance that has perplexed many investors, who worry that another pullback is on the horizon. But Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC, said he worries he’s not “bullish enough” on the current rally.

China doubles down on promoting yuan as confidence in U.S. dollar takes a beating

In a sign of growing resolve in Beijing to lure the world away from the dollar, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans last week to set up a center for digital yuan internationalization in Shanghai and promote the trading of yuan foreign exchange futures. Beijing has already rolled out a digital version of its currency to replace some cash and coins in circulation.

— Lee Ying Shan and Evelyn Cheng