Hot take: Peak homebuying season is overrated.
Sure, summer makes sense if you have kids in school. But wait until fall, and your patience often pays off. With less competition, buyers have more negotiating power.
This year, fall buyers have another advantage: Growing inventory. Housing supply hasn’t been this plentiful since May 2020.
If you didn’t luck out during your summer house hunt, be grateful. This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years. Here’s why.
Competition has calmed down
Back in 2021 and 2022, it felt nearly impossible to buy a house. Few places were listed for sale, thanks in part to the “rate lock-in effect” — homeowners clinging to their ultra-low mortgage rates. When a good listing popped up, buyers entered rabid bidding wars.
Until recently, sellers basked in the spotlight. But now the market is remixing, and it’s finally starting to feel like a duet.
Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, calls it a “buyer-friendly balanced market” — not quite a buyer’s market, but a noticeable power shift.
“What we’re seeing a lot of is sellers with some unrealistic expectations who list their homes maybe at prices they would have gotten in 2022, but it’s not 2022 anymore,” he says. “So they kind of have to do price reductions and negotiate with buyers more than they have in the past.”
An experienced buyer’s agent can help you understand how buyers in your market can flex this exciting new leverage. For example, you might be able to negotiate a lower purchase price, get the seller to pay for repairs or score some flexibility on a closing date.
Depending on your area, asking for all three still might be a stretch. Buyers have sway — not a magic wand.
Your friends are (probably) moving, too
After years of feeling stuck, buyers and sellers have recalibrated to the new normal of interest rates in the 6-7% range.
“Life happens,” Berner says. “People change jobs, people need to upsize, downsize. And, you know, that doesn’t always coincide nicely with mortgage rates.”
Housing inventory is measured in months’ supply, or the number of months it would take to sell all listed homes if no new ones came on the market.
In July 2025, the housing market had a 4.6 months’ supply of homes for sale, reports the National Association of Realtors — the highest number of houses on the market since before the pandemic.
Finally, the gridlock has eased. Buyers have more choice and don’t have to rush. In simple terms: “Higher inventory” just means more people are willing to move, whether or not that’s your literal social circle.
But when a friend lands a great new house, it might unlock your urge to browse listings, too.
Alexa Weber, a real estate agent with Hillary Ryan Group, Sotheby’s International Realty, has noticed the bandwagon effect among buyers. People like to see what’s working for friends or family before they make the decision for themselves, she says.
“Once they start seeing more momentum in the market — more properties going into contract, more properties closing — it gives them the confidence to move on their purchase that maybe they’ve been planning for a year or more,” Weber says.
Here’s the kicker: When mortgage rates eventually drop, all those friends and neighbors sitting on the sidelines will want to join the game. That could drive competition up again. So if you’re ready to buy, jump in now.
You could get a price break
Since early 2020, the median purchase price for a home has risen 55.7%, while wages have grown only 26.6%, according to a June 2025 report from ATTOM, a real estate data provider. The national median price in July 2025 was $422,400, according to the NAR, and year-over-year home prices have risen for 25 straight months.
Despite that broader trend, a few smaller wins this fall could add up.
First, home price growth is flattening. In July, the year-over-year gain was only 0.2%, suggesting that roughly half the country is seeing price drops, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun noted in a news release. That’s another reason to team up with a local buyer’s agent who knows what’s happening in your area, Berner says. In many areas, prices are falling year over year.
“Really, there’s no such thing as a national market,” Berner says. “There’s just a bunch of local markets.”
Another score: In the fall, sellers tend to reduce prices for homes that have been on the market for a while. Plus, you can usually save a few bucks on moving costs.
Mortgage rates might drop
Finally, the wild card: Mortgage rates. Despite economic uncertainty, forecasts still expect average mortgage rates to drop slightly by the final quarter of 2025, with Fannie Mae predicting 6.5% and the Mortgage Bankers Association saying 6.6%. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. All eyes are on the Sept. 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting, which could signal optimism or pessimism for September mortgage rates and the months ahead.
Fractions of a percentage point do matter when it comes to mortgage rates. When you pay less in interest, it can lower your monthly payment or increase your purchasing power.
But avoid the temptation to time the market perfectly, Berner says. If a house meets your needs and works for your budget right now, that’s your cue. If rates drop, you can always refinance later.
“This is the most buyer-friendly market we’ve had since the pandemic,” he says. “So if you find what you’re looking for, jump on it.”
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